Canada’s monthly GDP stalled at 0.0% in July after three prior months of expansion, setting a soft start to the third quarter following the 3.3% annualized Q2 pace. Statistics Canada’s September 29 advance estimate pointed to a 0.2% rebound in August, supported by gains in mining and quarrying plus retail trade that were partly offset by declines in oil and gas extraction. This preliminary reading aligns with resilient consumer spending indicators but precedes the full impact of U.S. tariffs imposed in late August and Canadian countermeasures. Traders assign the highest implied probability (46.5%) to a 0.2–0.3% outcome for the October 30 final release, with notable weight also on a flat-to-0.1% print, reflecting typical revisions to early estimates and uncertainty over tariff-related drags that Bank of Canada officials have flagged as likely to halve Q4 growth.