Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the 0.4% consensus, has set expectations for further moderation into Q3 amid the lagged effects of Brazil’s restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic rate near 13.75%. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around flat-to-modest expansion, reflecting uncertainty over whether resilient household consumption and fiscal support will offset cooling labor demand and elevated borrowing costs. Leading indicators, including softer manufacturing and services readings, point to a potential 0.0–0.5% outcome, while downside risks stem from persistent inflation above the 3% target and fading fiscal impulse. Traders are monitoring upcoming high-frequency data releases for clearer signals ahead of the December IBGE report.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update0.0% to 0.2% 31%
0.3% to 0.5% 30.9%
-0.3% to -0.1% 29%
0.9% to 1.1% 8.5%
$16,034 Vol.
$16,034 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
10%
-0.3% to -0.1%
29%
0.0% to 0.2%
31%
0.3% to 0.5%
31%
0.6% to 0.8%
5%
0.9% to 1.1%
10%
≥1.2%
<1%
0.0% to 0.2% 31%
0.3% to 0.5% 30.9%
-0.3% to -0.1% 29%
0.9% to 1.1% 8.5%
$16,034 Vol.
$16,034 Vol.
Dec 1, 2026
<-0.3%
$320 Vol.
10%
-0.3% to -0.1%
$4,525 Vol.
29%
0.0% to 0.2%
$8,070 Vol.
31%
0.3% to 0.5%
$2,184 Vol.
31%
0.6% to 0.8%
$309 Vol.
5%
0.9% to 1.1%
$330 Vol.
10%
≥1.2%
$297 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the 0.4% consensus, has set expectations for further moderation into Q3 amid the lagged effects of Brazil’s restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic rate near 13.75%. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around flat-to-modest expansion, reflecting uncertainty over whether resilient household consumption and fiscal support will offset cooling labor demand and elevated borrowing costs. Leading indicators, including softer manufacturing and services readings, point to a potential 0.0–0.5% outcome, while downside risks stem from persistent inflation above the 3% target and fading fiscal impulse. Traders are monitoring upcoming high-frequency data releases for clearer signals ahead of the December IBGE report.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$16,034Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 2, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the 0.4% consensus, has set expectations for further moderation into Q3 amid the lagged effects of Brazil’s restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic rate near 13.75%. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around flat-to-modest expansion, reflecting uncertainty over whether resilient household consumption and fiscal support will offset cooling labor demand and elevated borrowing costs. Leading indicators, including softer manufacturing and services readings, point to a potential 0.0–0.5% outcome, while downside risks stem from persistent inflation above the 3% target and fading fiscal impulse. Traders are monitoring upcoming high-frequency data releases for clearer signals ahead of the December IBGE report.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$16,034Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 2, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the 0.4% consensus, has set expectations for further moderation into Q3 amid the lagged effects of Brazil’s restrictive monetary policy, with the Selic rate near 13.75%. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around flat-to-modest expansion, reflecting uncertainty over whether resilient household consumption and fiscal support will offset cooling labor demand and elevated borrowing costs. Leading indicators, including softer manufacturing and services readings, point to a potential 0.0–0.5% outcome, while downside risks stem from persistent inflation above the 3% target and fading fiscal impulse. Traders are monitoring upcoming high-frequency data releases for clearer signals ahead of the December IBGE report.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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