An Alberta Court of King's Bench ruling on May 13 quashed a citizen-initiated petition with over 300,000 signatures seeking a provincial referendum on independence, following legal challenges from First Nations over unconsulted treaty rights, significantly dimming prospects for a 2026 vote. Premier Danielle Smith announced an appeal but affirmed that the province's scheduled October 19 referendum on nine other policy questions—covering immigration, constitution, and sovereignty panels—will proceed without separation. Recent polls, including those from Abacus Data and Angus Reid, show independence support at 25-30%, a minority view even among UCP voters, reinforcing trader consensus at 89% against a vote amid constitutional barriers like the federal Clarity Act and lack of government commitment.