Recent polls show Alberta voters strongly favor remaining in Canada, with support for proceeding toward a binding independence referendum ranging from 19% to 33% across surveys conducted from May through mid-August 2026. Premier Danielle Smith’s May announcement framed the October 19 referendum question around commencing constitutional steps for separation while explicitly endorsing the status quo, aligning with her stated personal preference. Court rulings in late 2025 and mid-2026 struck down citizen petitions over inadequate First Nations consultation, stalling separatist initiatives under appeal. Declining separatist sentiment since early 2026, combined with procedural barriers and the multi-question ballot structure, underpins traders’ 93.8% probability against an independence vote occurring this year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update6% tsansa
$253,949 Vol.
$253,949 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% tsansa
$253,949 Vol.
$253,949 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polls show Alberta voters strongly favor remaining in Canada, with support for proceeding toward a binding independence referendum ranging from 19% to 33% across surveys conducted from May through mid-August 2026. Premier Danielle Smith’s May announcement framed the October 19 referendum question around commencing constitutional steps for separation while explicitly endorsing the status quo, aligning with her stated personal preference. Court rulings in late 2025 and mid-2026 struck down citizen petitions over inadequate First Nations consultation, stalling separatist initiatives under appeal. Declining separatist sentiment since early 2026, combined with procedural barriers and the multi-question ballot structure, underpins traders’ 93.8% probability against an independence vote occurring this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$253,949Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polls show Alberta voters strongly favor remaining in Canada, with support for proceeding toward a binding independence referendum ranging from 19% to 33% across surveys conducted from May through mid-August 2026. Premier Danielle Smith’s May announcement framed the October 19 referendum question around commencing constitutional steps for separation while explicitly endorsing the status quo, aligning with her stated personal preference. Court rulings in late 2025 and mid-2026 struck down citizen petitions over inadequate First Nations consultation, stalling separatist initiatives under appeal. Declining separatist sentiment since early 2026, combined with procedural barriers and the multi-question ballot structure, underpins traders’ 93.8% probability against an independence vote occurring this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$253,949Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls show Alberta voters strongly favor remaining in Canada, with support for proceeding toward a binding independence referendum ranging from 19% to 33% across surveys conducted from May through mid-August 2026. Premier Danielle Smith’s May announcement framed the October 19 referendum question around commencing constitutional steps for separation while explicitly endorsing the status quo, aligning with her stated personal preference. Court rulings in late 2025 and mid-2026 struck down citizen petitions over inadequate First Nations consultation, stalling separatist initiatives under appeal. Declining separatist sentiment since early 2026, combined with procedural barriers and the multi-question ballot structure, underpins traders’ 93.8% probability against an independence vote occurring this year.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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