Recent May 2026 Bank of Korea decision to hold the base rate at 2.50% for the eighth straight meeting, combined with upward revisions to 2026 inflation (now 2.7%) and GDP growth (now 2.6%) forecasts, underpins trader positioning around the August 27 outcome. April CPI at 2.6%—driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions—has introduced hawkish signals, including board dissent and a dot plot implying potential tightening to 2.75%, bolstering 25 basis point hike odds near 40%. Yet resilient semiconductor exports and a still-cautious new Governor Shin Hyun-song stance, alongside lingering growth and financial stability risks, keep no-change probabilities at 51% while supporting comparable odds for a 25 basis point cut. Incoming June–July inflation, export, and labor data will shape the final market-implied path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBank of Korea decision in August?
25 bps cut 43%
25 bps hike 42%
50+ bps hike 18%
50+ bps cut 4%
50+ bps cut
4%
25 bps cut
43%
No Change
47%
25 bps hike
42%
50+ bps hike
18%
25 bps cut 43%
25 bps hike 42%
50+ bps hike 18%
50+ bps cut 4%
50+ bps cut
4%
25 bps cut
43%
No Change
47%
25 bps hike
42%
50+ bps hike
18%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Binuksan ang Market: May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 Bank of Korea decision to hold the base rate at 2.50% for the eighth straight meeting, combined with upward revisions to 2026 inflation (now 2.7%) and GDP growth (now 2.6%) forecasts, underpins trader positioning around the August 27 outcome. April CPI at 2.6%—driven by elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions—has introduced hawkish signals, including board dissent and a dot plot implying potential tightening to 2.75%, bolstering 25 basis point hike odds near 40%. Yet resilient semiconductor exports and a still-cautious new Governor Shin Hyun-song stance, alongside lingering growth and financial stability risks, keep no-change probabilities at 51% while supporting comparable odds for a 25 basis point cut. Incoming June–July inflation, export, and labor data will shape the final market-implied path.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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