Iliana Iotova holds an 85.5% implied probability in the Bulgaria presidential election market, reflecting her status as incumbent president since January 2026 and consistent leads in recent polling. Multiple surveys from late September and early October show the Iotova-Valchev ticket at 41–52% among decided voters ahead of the October 25 first round, far ahead of Andrey Gyurov at 22–28%, with other candidates including Kostadin Kostadinov trailing below 10%. A runoff appears likely, and trader pricing incorporates Iotova’s cross-party nomination committee support, institutional experience, and emphasis on consensus and European alignment. Gyurov’s 13.5% share aligns with his profile as former caretaker prime minister and second-place polling, while the long tail of minor candidates at 0.1% each matches their limited visibility and single-digit or lower support. The election occurs in two weeks, with turnout expectations around 40%.