Recent polling consistently shows Michigan’s Senate contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers as tighter than New Hampshire’s matchup of Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu. Michigan averages place the race within 1–5 points across September surveys, with multiple results near statistical ties, reflecting strong Democratic consolidation after the primary and voter pushback against the Trump administration. New Hampshire polls, including the New York Times/Siena survey, show Pappas ahead by about five points, though the race remains rated a toss-up by forecasters due to outside spending and Sununu’s profile. These patterns have shaped trader consensus that Michigan offers the narrower margin heading into November.