Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range as the clear leader at 47.5% implied probability for the August 3-5 window because Musk’s recent posting pace aligns with a moderate weekday rhythm of roughly 13-21 posts daily, consistent with his tracked averages on non-event days. Activity on August 3-4 has included replies and reposts on Grok updates, Starlink expansion, and political commentary, but without a major product launch, regulatory flashpoint, or viral controversy to accelerate volume. Precedent from similar three-day markets shows that quiet periods settle in the lower-to-mid ranges, while the sub-40 bucket at 31.9% accounts for any weekend slowdown. Upcoming catalysts remain limited through August 5, leaving the current consensus anchored in steady but unremarkable engagement metrics rather than a surge.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateElon Musk # tweets August 3 - August 5, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets August 3 - August 5, 2026?
40-64 48%
<40 31.9%
65-89 19%
90-114 2.9%
$152,234 Vol.
$152,234 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
<40
32%
40-64
48%
65-89
19%
90-114
3%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 48%
<40 31.9%
65-89 19%
90-114 2.9%
$152,234 Vol.
$152,234 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
<40
$29,354 Vol.
32%
40-64
$23,552 Vol.
48%
65-89
$19,575 Vol.
19%
90-114
$17,945 Vol.
3%
115-139
$22,632 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$14,818 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$8,185 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$6,641 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$5,865 Vol.
<1%
240+
$3,668 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range as the clear leader at 47.5% implied probability for the August 3-5 window because Musk’s recent posting pace aligns with a moderate weekday rhythm of roughly 13-21 posts daily, consistent with his tracked averages on non-event days. Activity on August 3-4 has included replies and reposts on Grok updates, Starlink expansion, and political commentary, but without a major product launch, regulatory flashpoint, or viral controversy to accelerate volume. Precedent from similar three-day markets shows that quiet periods settle in the lower-to-mid ranges, while the sub-40 bucket at 31.9% accounts for any weekend slowdown. Upcoming catalysts remain limited through August 5, leaving the current consensus anchored in steady but unremarkable engagement metrics rather than a surge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$152,234Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range as the clear leader at 47.5% implied probability for the August 3-5 window because Musk’s recent posting pace aligns with a moderate weekday rhythm of roughly 13-21 posts daily, consistent with his tracked averages on non-event days. Activity on August 3-4 has included replies and reposts on Grok updates, Starlink expansion, and political commentary, but without a major product launch, regulatory flashpoint, or viral controversy to accelerate volume. Precedent from similar three-day markets shows that quiet periods settle in the lower-to-mid ranges, while the sub-40 bucket at 31.9% accounts for any weekend slowdown. Upcoming catalysts remain limited through August 5, leaving the current consensus anchored in steady but unremarkable engagement metrics rather than a surge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$152,234Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 1, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range as the clear leader at 47.5% implied probability for the August 3-5 window because Musk’s recent posting pace aligns with a moderate weekday rhythm of roughly 13-21 posts daily, consistent with his tracked averages on non-event days. Activity on August 3-4 has included replies and reposts on Grok updates, Starlink expansion, and political commentary, but without a major product launch, regulatory flashpoint, or viral controversy to accelerate volume. Precedent from similar three-day markets shows that quiet periods settle in the lower-to-mid ranges, while the sub-40 bucket at 31.9% accounts for any weekend slowdown. Upcoming catalysts remain limited through August 5, leaving the current consensus anchored in steady but unremarkable engagement metrics rather than a surge.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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