Forecast models for Guangzhou on October 1 show afternoon highs clustered in the mid-30s Celsius, consistent with the tight market distribution around 35–37°C. Persistent late-September warmth—driven by southerly flow and urban heat retention—has produced recent daily maxima near 36–38°C, setting a baseline above the 30.7°C climatological average. Light rain or showers expected during the day could limit peak solar heating and cap the maximum near 35–36°C, while any clearing or delayed precipitation would allow brief spikes toward 37°C. Model spread arises mainly from differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture; historical records show October 1 highs rarely exceed 35.2°C. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the recent warm anomaly tempered by forecast precipitation.