Recent forecasts from numerical weather prediction models indicate a daily maximum temperature near 36°C for Jeddah on May 22, aligning with the market's leading outcome at 34.5% implied probability and reflecting typical early-summer conditions along the Red Sea coast. Historical May highs in the region cluster between 33°C and 38°C, moderated by coastal humidity and sea breezes, though minor shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover could push readings toward 35°C or 37–38°C. Traders appear to weigh model consensus against this narrow range of variability, with lower probabilities assigned to extremes below 34°C or above 38°C due to the low likelihood of significant deviations in the 48-hour window. Updated model runs and official observations from Saudi meteorological stations will provide the final resolution data.