Latest AEMET and ECMWF model consensus points to a daytime maximum of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 12 under persistent high pressure and a warm air mass tied to the ongoing Iberian heat dome, with light winds and clear skies favoring peak readings near official stations. Urban heat-island effects in central Madrid can add 1°C locally, while minor model spread accounts for the market’s secondary probability on 38°C and limited tail risk on 40°C. Recent runs show slight warming relative to August 10–11 forecasts, consistent with climatological August highs near 33°C but elevated by current synoptic patterns. New model guidance and AEMET briefings ahead of resolution remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 12?
39°C 59%
38°C 25%
40°C 12%
37°C 4%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
4%
38°C
25%
39°C
59%
40°C
12%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
1%
39°C 59%
38°C 25%
40°C 12%
37°C 4%
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 12, 2026
33°C or below
$485 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$417 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$361 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$204 Vol.
1%
37°C
$927 Vol.
4%
38°C
$2,612 Vol.
25%
39°C
$984 Vol.
59%
40°C
$702 Vol.
12%
41°C
$161 Vol.
2%
42°C
$336 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$446 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and ECMWF model consensus points to a daytime maximum of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 12 under persistent high pressure and a warm air mass tied to the ongoing Iberian heat dome, with light winds and clear skies favoring peak readings near official stations. Urban heat-island effects in central Madrid can add 1°C locally, while minor model spread accounts for the market’s secondary probability on 38°C and limited tail risk on 40°C. Recent runs show slight warming relative to August 10–11 forecasts, consistent with climatological August highs near 33°C but elevated by current synoptic patterns. New model guidance and AEMET briefings ahead of resolution remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$7,635Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 12, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and ECMWF model consensus points to a daytime maximum of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 12 under persistent high pressure and a warm air mass tied to the ongoing Iberian heat dome, with light winds and clear skies favoring peak readings near official stations. Urban heat-island effects in central Madrid can add 1°C locally, while minor model spread accounts for the market’s secondary probability on 38°C and limited tail risk on 40°C. Recent runs show slight warming relative to August 10–11 forecasts, consistent with climatological August highs near 33°C but elevated by current synoptic patterns. New model guidance and AEMET briefings ahead of resolution remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,635Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 12, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET and ECMWF model consensus points to a daytime maximum of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 12 under persistent high pressure and a warm air mass tied to the ongoing Iberian heat dome, with light winds and clear skies favoring peak readings near official stations. Urban heat-island effects in central Madrid can add 1°C locally, while minor model spread accounts for the market’s secondary probability on 38°C and limited tail risk on 40°C. Recent runs show slight warming relative to August 10–11 forecasts, consistent with climatological August highs near 33°C but elevated by current synoptic patterns. New model guidance and AEMET briefings ahead of resolution remain the key variables traders are monitoring.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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