Widespread primary challenges from progressive candidates against Democratic House incumbents, fueled by party base frustration and generational turnover pressures, have created a competitive environment reflected in the trader consensus around 7-9 losses at 42 percent. Recent fundraising reports show several incumbents outraised in key quarters, with well-funded opponents emerging in districts like those held by long-serving members in California, Michigan, and North Carolina, yet most races remain non-competitive due to incumbents' established donor networks and institutional support. The tight clustering between 4-6 and 7-9 outcomes stems from uncertainty over how many of the roughly two-thirds of Democratic incumbents with filed challengers will face viable threats versus token opposition. Upcoming primary dates and early results in contested states could widen gaps if multiple incumbents falter, while strong showings by establishment-backed candidates or limited progressive gains might consolidate probabilities toward fewer losses.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update4-6 36.4%
13-15 3.6%
10-12 3.4%
>15 <1%
BAGO
BAGO
<3
28%
4-6
36%
7-9
42%
10-12
3%
13-15
4%
>15
<1%
4-6 36.4%
13-15 3.6%
10-12 3.4%
>15 <1%
BAGO
BAGO
<3
$184 Vol.
28%
4-6
$606 Vol.
36%
7-9
$108 Vol.
42%
10-12
$386 Vol.
3%
13-15
$341 Vol.
4%
>15
$253 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Widespread primary challenges from progressive candidates against Democratic House incumbents, fueled by party base frustration and generational turnover pressures, have created a competitive environment reflected in the trader consensus around 7-9 losses at 42 percent. Recent fundraising reports show several incumbents outraised in key quarters, with well-funded opponents emerging in districts like those held by long-serving members in California, Michigan, and North Carolina, yet most races remain non-competitive due to incumbents' established donor networks and institutional support. The tight clustering between 4-6 and 7-9 outcomes stems from uncertainty over how many of the roughly two-thirds of Democratic incumbents with filed challengers will face viable threats versus token opposition. Upcoming primary dates and early results in contested states could widen gaps if multiple incumbents falter, while strong showings by establishment-backed candidates or limited progressive gains might consolidate probabilities toward fewer losses.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,878Binuksan ang Market
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Widespread primary challenges from progressive candidates against Democratic House incumbents, fueled by party base frustration and generational turnover pressures, have created a competitive environment reflected in the trader consensus around 7-9 losses at 42 percent. Recent fundraising reports show several incumbents outraised in key quarters, with well-funded opponents emerging in districts like those held by long-serving members in California, Michigan, and North Carolina, yet most races remain non-competitive due to incumbents' established donor networks and institutional support. The tight clustering between 4-6 and 7-9 outcomes stems from uncertainty over how many of the roughly two-thirds of Democratic incumbents with filed challengers will face viable threats versus token opposition. Upcoming primary dates and early results in contested states could widen gaps if multiple incumbents falter, while strong showings by establishment-backed candidates or limited progressive gains might consolidate probabilities toward fewer losses.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$1,878Binuksan ang Market
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Widespread primary challenges from progressive candidates against Democratic House incumbents, fueled by party base frustration and generational turnover pressures, have created a competitive environment reflected in the trader consensus around 7-9 losses at 42 percent. Recent fundraising reports show several incumbents outraised in key quarters, with well-funded opponents emerging in districts like those held by long-serving members in California, Michigan, and North Carolina, yet most races remain non-competitive due to incumbents' established donor networks and institutional support. The tight clustering between 4-6 and 7-9 outcomes stems from uncertainty over how many of the roughly two-thirds of Democratic incumbents with filed challengers will face viable threats versus token opposition. Upcoming primary dates and early results in contested states could widen gaps if multiple incumbents falter, while strong showings by establishment-backed candidates or limited progressive gains might consolidate probabilities toward fewer losses.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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