US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or rendered inoperable key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with IAEA reports through June 2026 confirming limited verification access and no evidence of resumed uranium enrichment or weaponization activities. A US-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirms Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while highly enriched uranium stockpiles remain buried or sealed under rubble and mined entrances at affected sites. These disruptions, combined with ongoing ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from undetected rebuilding at secondary sites, breakdown in talks, or changes in regional security dynamics that alter Iran's strategic calculations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% tsansa
$246,340 Vol.
$246,340 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% tsansa
$246,340 Vol.
$246,340 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or rendered inoperable key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with IAEA reports through June 2026 confirming limited verification access and no evidence of resumed uranium enrichment or weaponization activities. A US-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirms Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while highly enriched uranium stockpiles remain buried or sealed under rubble and mined entrances at affected sites. These disruptions, combined with ongoing ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from undetected rebuilding at secondary sites, breakdown in talks, or changes in regional security dynamics that alter Iran's strategic calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,340Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or rendered inoperable key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with IAEA reports through June 2026 confirming limited verification access and no evidence of resumed uranium enrichment or weaponization activities. A US-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirms Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while highly enriched uranium stockpiles remain buried or sealed under rubble and mined entrances at affected sites. These disruptions, combined with ongoing ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from undetected rebuilding at secondary sites, breakdown in talks, or changes in regional security dynamics that alter Iran's strategic calculations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,340Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or rendered inoperable key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, with IAEA reports through June 2026 confirming limited verification access and no evidence of resumed uranium enrichment or weaponization activities. A US-Iran memorandum of understanding reaffirms Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, while highly enriched uranium stockpiles remain buried or sealed under rubble and mined entrances at affected sites. These disruptions, combined with ongoing ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Potential shifts could arise from undetected rebuilding at secondary sites, breakdown in talks, or changes in regional security dynamics that alter Iran's strategic calculations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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