US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear weapon timeline remains roughly nine to twelve months despite US and Israeli strikes on key facilities since late February, including Natanz and Isfahan sites during Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion. This unchanged breakout estimate, echoed in DNI Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony noting no resumed weaponization or high-level enrichment, underpins traders' 91% consensus on "No" for Iran acquiring a nuke before 2027. IAEA reports highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium nearing weapons-grade levels but verify no diversion to military use amid stalled US-Iran talks over limits. Ongoing war disruptions and diplomatic deadlock reinforce the extended timeline, though rapid enrichment acceleration or regime shifts could alter odds.