Current forecasts from NOAA and private models show Dallas under strong high pressure with southerly flow and clear skies through September 14, keeping overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s and limiting radiational cooling. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 78–83°F bins, as traders weigh minor model differences in dew points and boundary-layer mixing against the strong consensus for continued heat. Historical September averages near 71°F highlight the current anomaly, while any unexpected northerly shift or increased cloud cover could pull the minimum lower, though no such changes appear imminent before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Dallas on September 14?
71°F or below 74%
90°F or higher 74%
72-73°F 39%
74-75°F 39%
71°F or below
74%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
39%
90°F or higher
74%
71°F or below 74%
90°F or higher 74%
72-73°F 39%
74-75°F 39%
71°F or below
74%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
39%
90°F or higher
74%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from NOAA and private models show Dallas under strong high pressure with southerly flow and clear skies through September 14, keeping overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s and limiting radiational cooling. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 78–83°F bins, as traders weigh minor model differences in dew points and boundary-layer mixing against the strong consensus for continued heat. Historical September averages near 71°F highlight the current anomaly, while any unexpected northerly shift or increased cloud cover could pull the minimum lower, though no such changes appear imminent before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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