**Trader consensus in the Mexico City lowest-temperature market centers on 13–15°C outcomes, reflecting model agreement on typical rainy-season overnight conditions at the city’s high elevation (~2,240–2,300 m).** Multiple forecasts issued on August 20–21 projected an overnight low near 13–16°C (roughly 55–60°F), driven by persistent cloud cover, light variable winds, and moderate humidity that limited radiative cooling. Official guidance from sources such as WeatherBug, Infobae, and regional models converged on a minimum around 13–14°C, consistent with the recent August pattern of 12–15°C lows recorded at the Mexico City station. August climatology features frequent afternoon convection and nocturnal stratus that trap heat, keeping minimums from dropping sharply; the 2026 season has so far shown slightly above-normal averages but no anomalous cold intrusions. With resolution criteria tied to the official station reading, the market-implied probabilities (15°C at 60%, nearby 13–14°C bins near 37%) capture the narrow expected range under these stable meteorological conditions rather than any outlier cooling or warming signal. No major forecast shifts occurred in the final 24–48 hours before the period.