Recent forecast models from sources including the Met Office and regional analyses indicate Mexico City’s overnight low on October 12 will likely range 12–14 °C amid persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity near 90–98 %, and light rain or showers linked to seasonal moisture patterns at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. These conditions suppress radiative cooling yet keep temperatures above typical October climatological minima near 11 °C. Trader consensus placing the strongest implied probability on 8 °C or below reflects uncertainty in model guidance for overnight cloud breaks or stronger advection, while the cluster of probabilities around 9–16 °C captures the range of current ensemble outputs. Updated runs from official monitoring agencies over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for the daily minimum.