Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with National Meteorological Service guidance, point to overnight lows of 11–13°C in Buenos Aires on October 12 amid persistent southeasterly flow, high humidity, and light drizzle that limits radiative cooling. This pattern supports the elevated market-implied odds for an 11°C minimum while tempering expectations for warmer outcomes above 14°C. Springtime variability in the region, including occasional pulses of cooler southern air and model spread in boundary-layer conditions, sustains trader pricing near 33% for adjacent 6–14°C bins and nearly 50% for 5°C or below, reflecting the possibility that stronger-than-expected advection or clearer skies could produce a sharper drop. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will be key to refining these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.