Recent numerical weather model consensus from sources including MetService and international ensembles positions 18°C as the leading outcome for Wellington’s October 11 maximum, driven by northerly flow advecting milder air ahead of a weak front. Forecasts indicate mostly cloudy conditions with possible morning drizzle, afternoon highs typically reaching 16–18°C under gusty northwest winds, aligning closely with the market’s 56% implied probability on 18°C and 30.5% on 17°C. Historical October averages near 15–17°C provide context, while minor model spread on exact peak timing or shower timing keeps a small probability on 19°C. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria before the daily maximum is recorded.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateView resolved

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