Forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned runs and international ensembles project a minimum temperature in Wellington of 7–9 °C overnight into September 14 under partly cloudy skies, light northerly flow, and clear conditions favoring radiative cooling. This consensus drives the market’s clustering around 7 °C (29.5 %) and 8 °C (25.5 %), consistent with typical early-spring nocturnal minima near 9 °C but tempered by current stable high pressure. The 50 % implied probability on 4 °C or below captures tail risk from model spread, localized katabatic effects in the city’s topography, and any late forecast revisions. Key upcoming inputs include the next official MetService briefing and final high-resolution model cycles before midnight.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Wellington on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 14?
4°C or below 98%
7°C 44%
6°C 40%
5°C 18%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 14, 2026
4°C or below
98%
5°C
18%
6°C
40%
7°C
44%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
4°C or below 98%
7°C 44%
6°C 40%
5°C 18%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 14, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
98%
5°C
$0 Vol.
18%
6°C
$24 Vol.
40%
7°C
$10 Vol.
44%
8°C
$5 Vol.
40%
9°C
$5 Vol.
40%
10°C
$700 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$110 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned runs and international ensembles project a minimum temperature in Wellington of 7–9 °C overnight into September 14 under partly cloudy skies, light northerly flow, and clear conditions favoring radiative cooling. This consensus drives the market’s clustering around 7 °C (29.5 %) and 8 °C (25.5 %), consistent with typical early-spring nocturnal minima near 9 °C but tempered by current stable high pressure. The 50 % implied probability on 4 °C or below captures tail risk from model spread, localized katabatic effects in the city’s topography, and any late forecast revisions. Key upcoming inputs include the next official MetService briefing and final high-resolution model cycles before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$859Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 14, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned runs and international ensembles project a minimum temperature in Wellington of 7–9 °C overnight into September 14 under partly cloudy skies, light northerly flow, and clear conditions favoring radiative cooling. This consensus drives the market’s clustering around 7 °C (29.5 %) and 8 °C (25.5 %), consistent with typical early-spring nocturnal minima near 9 °C but tempered by current stable high pressure. The 50 % implied probability on 4 °C or below captures tail risk from model spread, localized katabatic effects in the city’s topography, and any late forecast revisions. Key upcoming inputs include the next official MetService briefing and final high-resolution model cycles before midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$859Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 14, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including MetService-aligned runs and international ensembles project a minimum temperature in Wellington of 7–9 °C overnight into September 14 under partly cloudy skies, light northerly flow, and clear conditions favoring radiative cooling. This consensus drives the market’s clustering around 7 °C (29.5 %) and 8 °C (25.5 %), consistent with typical early-spring nocturnal minima near 9 °C but tempered by current stable high pressure. The 50 % implied probability on 4 °C or below captures tail risk from model spread, localized katabatic effects in the city’s topography, and any late forecast revisions. Key upcoming inputs include the next official MetService briefing and final high-resolution model cycles before midnight.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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