Traders assign an 89% probability against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake by June 30 because such events remain exceptionally rare on global timescales, occurring roughly once every 20–50 years. The last confirmed M9+ quake struck Japan in 2011, and current USGS monitoring shows no subduction-zone anomalies or precursory seismic swarms that would elevate near-term risk. An April 2026 magnitude 7.7 event off northern Japan briefly raised the short-term probability of a follow-on M8+ to about 1% according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, yet that alert has since lapsed without escalation. Ongoing plate-boundary strain measurements and aftershock patterns remain consistent with background levels, leaving little scientific basis for expecting a megaquake within the next six weeks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$66,081 Vol.
$66,081 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign an 89% probability against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake by June 30 because such events remain exceptionally rare on global timescales, occurring roughly once every 20–50 years. The last confirmed M9+ quake struck Japan in 2011, and current USGS monitoring shows no subduction-zone anomalies or precursory seismic swarms that would elevate near-term risk. An April 2026 magnitude 7.7 event off northern Japan briefly raised the short-term probability of a follow-on M8+ to about 1% according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, yet that alert has since lapsed without escalation. Ongoing plate-boundary strain measurements and aftershock patterns remain consistent with background levels, leaving little scientific basis for expecting a megaquake within the next six weeks.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$66,081Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign an 89% probability against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake by June 30 because such events remain exceptionally rare on global timescales, occurring roughly once every 20–50 years. The last confirmed M9+ quake struck Japan in 2011, and current USGS monitoring shows no subduction-zone anomalies or precursory seismic swarms that would elevate near-term risk. An April 2026 magnitude 7.7 event off northern Japan briefly raised the short-term probability of a follow-on M8+ to about 1% according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, yet that alert has since lapsed without escalation. Ongoing plate-boundary strain measurements and aftershock patterns remain consistent with background levels, leaving little scientific basis for expecting a megaquake within the next six weeks.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$66,081Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 89% probability against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake by June 30 because such events remain exceptionally rare on global timescales, occurring roughly once every 20–50 years. The last confirmed M9+ quake struck Japan in 2011, and current USGS monitoring shows no subduction-zone anomalies or precursory seismic swarms that would elevate near-term risk. An April 2026 magnitude 7.7 event off northern Japan briefly raised the short-term probability of a follow-on M8+ to about 1% according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, yet that alert has since lapsed without escalation. Ongoing plate-boundary strain measurements and aftershock patterns remain consistent with background levels, leaving little scientific basis for expecting a megaquake within the next six weeks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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