Morgan Stanley’s strong track record of surpassing consensus estimates supports the 85.5% market-implied odds for a Q3 2026 earnings beat ahead of the October 14 release. The firm delivered a sizable outperformance in Q2, posting EPS of $3.46 against estimates near $2.93–$3.03 and revenue of $21.35 billion versus roughly $19.7–20.2 billion, driven by robust equity trading and wealth-management inflows that reached a $10 trillion client-asset milestone. Analysts project modest year-over-year growth for the current quarter, with EPS estimates clustered around $2.83–$2.95 and revenue near $19.6–20.0 billion, amid expectations for continued strength in institutional equities offset by softer investment-banking activity and rising costs. Recent downward revisions to near-term forecasts have been limited, while the bank’s consistent positive surprises over the prior four quarters reinforce trader consensus priced into the prediction market.