Nawaf Salam’s recent diplomatic initiatives, including direct negotiations with Israel to extend the ceasefire and secure a full troop withdrawal, have reinforced trader views that he will likely remain Lebanon’s prime minister through the end of 2026. His meetings with international leaders such as French President Macron, appeals for €500 million in humanitarian aid, and public rebukes of external interference have strengthened his position within the fragile governing coalition. At the same time, Lebanon’s entrenched sectarian dynamics, ongoing tensions with Hezbollah over arms control, and parliamentary pressures create persistent uncertainty. Any escalation in border security talks, delays in economic reforms, or shifts in coalition support could quickly alter the narrow edge currently favoring his continued tenure.