**Republican Anthony Constantino holds a commanding lead in New York’s 21st Congressional District after the November 3 general election, driving the market’s strong consensus.** The open seat, previously held by Elise Stefanik, sits in a district that favored Republicans by roughly 20 points in the prior presidential election. Constantino, who won the GOP primary with Donald Trump’s backing and self-funded heavily, leads Democrat Blake Gendebien by about 5,700 votes (roughly 51% to 49%) with nearly all precincts reporting. Decision Desk HQ has called the race for Constantino, and Stefanik has congratulated him. Gendebien has not formally conceded pending full counts but acknowledged the likely outcome. Remaining mail and provisional ballots are few and would need an improbable swing to alter the result. Late certification or post-election legal challenges remain the primary, though low-probability, paths that could still affect final resolution.