OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOpenAI's Astra released on...?
OpenAI's Astra released on...?
September 3 49.6%
On or prior to September 2 25.9%
No release by September 30 10%
September 13 5%
BAGO
$21,338 Vol.
BAGO
$21,338 Vol.
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
26%
September 3
50%
September 4
2%
September 5
2%
September 6
2%
September 7
3%
September 8
3%
September 9
2%
September 10
2%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
5%
September 14
1%
September 15
1%
September 16
1%
September 17
1%
September 18
1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
1%
September 23
2%
September 24
2%
September 25
3%
September 26
2%
September 27
4%
September 28
3%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
14%
September 3 49.6%
On or prior to September 2 25.9%
No release by September 30 10%
September 13 5%
BAGO
$21,338 Vol.
BAGO
$21,338 Vol.
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
$1,263 Vol.
26%
September 3
$1,330 Vol.
50%
September 4
$921 Vol.
2%
September 5
$526 Vol.
2%
September 6
$525 Vol.
2%
September 7
$520 Vol.
3%
September 8
$520 Vol.
3%
September 9
$520 Vol.
2%
September 10
$440 Vol.
2%
September 11
$733 Vol.
1%
September 12
$733 Vol.
1%
September 13
$657 Vol.
5%
September 14
$733 Vol.
1%
September 15
$950 Vol.
1%
September 16
$628 Vol.
1%
September 17
$452 Vol.
1%
September 18
$755 Vol.
1%
September 19
$755 Vol.
1%
September 20
$755 Vol.
1%
September 21
$462 Vol.
2%
September 22
$755 Vol.
1%
September 23
$462 Vol.
2%
September 24
$859 Vol.
2%
September 25
$462 Vol.
3%
September 26
$462 Vol.
2%
September 27
$939 Vol.
4%
September 28
$462 Vol.
3%
September 29
$755 Vol.
1%
September 30
$765 Vol.
1%
No release by September 30
$1,239 Vol.
14%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
Volume
$21,338Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,338Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 1 announcement that Astra meets its “critical” cybersecurity threshold under the Preparedness Framework, after weeks of safety-related delays following the July Hugging Face incident, is the main driver behind market-implied odds. The company stated it plans to make the large language model available “soon” while limiting advanced cyber capabilities to select Daybreak Blue testers initially, with a system card at launch. This language, combined with resumed development and strong benchmark performance such as 100% on ExploitBench, has concentrated trader consensus on the next several days. The low probability assigned to no release by September 30 reflects confidence that controlled rollout preparations are now largely complete, though exact timing remains subject to final safety validations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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