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Politics·Trump

What will Trump do on the 4th of July?

icon for What will Trump do on the 4th of July?
Politics·Trump

What will Trump do on the 4th of July?

BAGO
Jul 4, 2026
Polymarket

$119 Vol.

Polymarket

Insult Someone

$25 Vol.

84%

Kiss Someone

$0 Vol.

50%

Post on Truth Social 20+ Times

$0 Vol.

48%

Wear a Blue Tie

$0 Vol.

48%

Sign an Executive Order

$0 Vol.

47%

Wear a MAGA Hat

$0 Vol.

45%

Hug Someone

$0 Vol.

45%

Wear a Red Tie

$102 Vol.

43%

Praise Allah

$73 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump kisses any other person on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying kiss is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving Donald Trump’s lips touching another individual. A qualifying kiss need not be reciprocal; a kiss on the cheek or hand from Donald Trump will qualify. Donald Trump receiving a kiss will not qualify. Reputable video or photographic evidence of the kiss must be released by July 5, 12:00 PM ET to qualify. AI-generated, manipulated, or other non-authentic evidence will not qualify. The resolution source will be reputable photographic/video footage of a kiss.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts 20 or more times on Truth Social between July 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET and July 4, 2026 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a blue tie on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered. For the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg This tie would count as "Red": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "Other": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg If Donald Trump does not have any public appearance on the specified date or does not wear a tie, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET on July 5 this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a MAGA hat on July 4, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A MAGA hat refers to a hat which either says “Make America Great Again”, or “MAGA” on the hat. Other hats will not be considered, regardless of whether they are red. This market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any person on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released by July 5, 12:00 PM ET to qualify. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a red tie on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered. For the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg This tie would count as "Red": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "Other": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg If Donald Trump does not have any public appearance on the specified date or does not wear a tie, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. Text or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.President Donald Trump has announced plans to host a large-scale “Tribute to America” event on the National Mall on July 4, 2026, marking the nation’s 250th anniversary. The program, scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. near the Lincoln Memorial and Washington Monument, will feature hundreds of military musicians and ceremonial units, flyovers, airshows, and Trump’s keynote remarks before culminating in what organizers describe as the largest fireworks display in U.S. history. The White House has coordinated related commemorative efforts through Task Force 250 and earlier proclamations designating 2026 a year of celebration. These confirmed presidential commitments, detailed in recent Truth Social posts and administration statements, form the core context for any market assessing his July 4 activities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$119
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 30, 2026, 1:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump kisses any other person on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying kiss is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving Donald Trump’s lips touching another individual. A qualifying kiss need not be reciprocal; a kiss on the cheek or hand from Donald Trump will qualify. Donald Trump receiving a kiss will not qualify. Reputable video or photographic evidence of the kiss must be released by July 5, 12:00 PM ET to qualify. AI-generated, manipulated, or other non-authentic evidence will not qualify. The resolution source will be reputable photographic/video footage of a kiss.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts 20 or more times on Truth Social between July 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET and July 4, 2026 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a blue tie on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered. For the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg This tie would count as "Red": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "Other": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg If Donald Trump does not have any public appearance on the specified date or does not wear a tie, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET on July 5 this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a MAGA hat on July 4, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A MAGA hat refers to a hat which either says “Make America Great Again”, or “MAGA” on the hat. Other hats will not be considered, regardless of whether they are red. This market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump hugs any person on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released by July 5, 12:00 PM ET to qualify. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump wears a red tie on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on photo or video of Donald Trump’s actions on July 4 which are made publicly available by July 5, 12:00 PM ET. Reporting without photos or videos will not be considered. Publication of photos or videos of Donald Trump taken prior to or after July 4 will not be considered. For the tie to be considered predominantly blue or red, its primary color must be a shade of blue or red, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-blue-5ywRT5OXfn-5.jpg This tie would count as "Red": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-red-a7ObxtpGQcrR.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "Other": https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/donald-trump-tie-color-other-Q8aIgOP7wFs1.jpg If Donald Trump does not have any public appearance on the specified date or does not wear a tie, the market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. Text or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.President Donald Trump has announced plans to host a large-scale “Tribute to America” event on the National Mall on July 4, 2026, marking the nation’s 250th anniversary. The program, scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. near the Lincoln Memorial and Washington Monument, will feature hundreds of military musicians and ceremonial units, flyovers, airshows, and Trump’s keynote remarks before culminating in what organizers describe as the largest fireworks display in U.S. history. The White House has coordinated related commemorative efforts through Task Force 250 and earlier proclamations designating 2026 a year of celebration. These confirmed presidential commitments, detailed in recent Truth Social posts and administration statements, form the core context for any market assessing his July 4 activities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$119
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 30, 2026, 1:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on July 4 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "What will Trump do on the 4th of July?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 9 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Insult Someone" sa 84%, sinusundan ng "Kiss Someone" sa 50%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 84¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 84% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "What will Trump do on the 4th of July?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Jun 30, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "What will Trump do on the 4th of July?," i-browse ang 9 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "What will Trump do on the 4th of July?" ay "Insult Someone" sa 84%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 84% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Kiss Someone" sa 50%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "What will Trump do on the 4th of July?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.