Anthropic currently drives trader sentiment through Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, which lead major benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (63) and agentic/coding leaderboards as of mid-August 2026 following June and July releases. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains a close second on several metrics while xAI’s Grok 4.6, launched August 12, tied for third with strong post-training gains and lower pricing. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.1 Pro emphasize speed and multimodal tasks but trail overall. Frequent frontier updates from these labs, plus open-weight contenders like DeepSeek and Qwen, create volatility through December, with expected next-wave releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google likely determining year-end leaderboard shifts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$119,071 Vol.
OpenAI
35%
20%
Alibaba
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
$119,071 Vol.
OpenAI
35%
20%
Alibaba
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic currently drives trader sentiment through Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, which lead major benchmarks like Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (63) and agentic/coding leaderboards as of mid-August 2026 following June and July releases. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains a close second on several metrics while xAI’s Grok 4.6, launched August 12, tied for third with strong post-training gains and lower pricing. Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.1 Pro emphasize speed and multimodal tasks but trail overall. Frequent frontier updates from these labs, plus open-weight contenders like DeepSeek and Qwen, create volatility through December, with expected next-wave releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google likely determining year-end leaderboard shifts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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