Anthropic holds the market lead at 59% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October due to Claude Fable 5's current 83.0% benchmark lead over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0-81.1%, reflecting stronger results across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following categories on this contamination-free leaderboard refreshed with fresh tasks. Recent releases from both labs show tight competition, with Anthropic models demonstrating consistent edges in agentic and math subtasks while OpenAI emphasizes cost-efficient scaling. The crowded 50% cluster for most other providers highlights uncertainty around potential new frontier launches, capability jumps, or fine-tuning gains in the next ten weeks. Traders weigh historical patterns of rapid iteration against LiveBench's objective scoring, which favors demonstrated generalization over saturated older benchmarks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?
Anthropic 59%
OpenAI 35%
Google 1.0%
Z.ai 1.0%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
59%
OpenAI
35%
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meituan
1%
Moonshot
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
Thinky
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Mistral
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Anthropic 59%
OpenAI 35%
Google 1.0%
Z.ai 1.0%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,512 Vol.
59%
OpenAI
$749 Vol.
35%
$153 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$175 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$177 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$256 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$235 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$240 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$177 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$217 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$236 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$235 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$207 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$185 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$207 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$186 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$207 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$230 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$128 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$187 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$187 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the market lead at 59% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October due to Claude Fable 5's current 83.0% benchmark lead over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0-81.1%, reflecting stronger results across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following categories on this contamination-free leaderboard refreshed with fresh tasks. Recent releases from both labs show tight competition, with Anthropic models demonstrating consistent edges in agentic and math subtasks while OpenAI emphasizes cost-efficient scaling. The crowded 50% cluster for most other providers highlights uncertainty around potential new frontier launches, capability jumps, or fine-tuning gains in the next ten weeks. Traders weigh historical patterns of rapid iteration against LiveBench's objective scoring, which favors demonstrated generalization over saturated older benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$9,086Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the market lead at 59% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October due to Claude Fable 5's current 83.0% benchmark lead over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0-81.1%, reflecting stronger results across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following categories on this contamination-free leaderboard refreshed with fresh tasks. Recent releases from both labs show tight competition, with Anthropic models demonstrating consistent edges in agentic and math subtasks while OpenAI emphasizes cost-efficient scaling. The crowded 50% cluster for most other providers highlights uncertainty around potential new frontier launches, capability jumps, or fine-tuning gains in the next ten weeks. Traders weigh historical patterns of rapid iteration against LiveBench's objective scoring, which favors demonstrated generalization over saturated older benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$9,086Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the market lead at 59% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October due to Claude Fable 5's current 83.0% benchmark lead over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0-81.1%, reflecting stronger results across reasoning, coding, and instruction-following categories on this contamination-free leaderboard refreshed with fresh tasks. Recent releases from both labs show tight competition, with Anthropic models demonstrating consistent edges in agentic and math subtasks while OpenAI emphasizes cost-efficient scaling. The crowded 50% cluster for most other providers highlights uncertainty around potential new frontier launches, capability jumps, or fine-tuning gains in the next ten weeks. Traders weigh historical patterns of rapid iteration against LiveBench's objective scoring, which favors demonstrated generalization over saturated older benchmarks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong