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icon for Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?

icon for Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?

Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?

50% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
50% шанс
Polymarket
НОВЕ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rejection of amnesty for Puigdemont’s malversation charges, coupled with its decision to uphold the national arrest warrant, has anchored trader sentiment toward a “No” outcome at 59% implied probability. The July EU court ruling validated Spain’s amnesty law broadly but left application to domestic courts, and the pending Constitutional Court amparo review—expected in coming weeks—remains the decisive swing factor. Any favorable TC ruling could prompt the investigating judge to lift the warrant, potentially enabling a late-2026 return, yet historical judicial caution and tight timelines before year-end sustain uncertainty. Traders are watching October deliberations and Junts political leverage for signals that could shift momentum before December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Обсяг
$6,832
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rejection of amnesty for Puigdemont’s malversation charges, coupled with its decision to uphold the national arrest warrant, has anchored trader sentiment toward a “No” outcome at 59% implied probability. The July EU court ruling validated Spain’s amnesty law broadly but left application to domestic courts, and the pending Constitutional Court amparo review—expected in coming weeks—remains the decisive swing factor. Any favorable TC ruling could prompt the investigating judge to lift the warrant, potentially enabling a late-2026 return, yet historical judicial caution and tight timelines before year-end sustain uncertainty. Traders are watching October deliberations and Junts political leverage for signals that could shift momentum before December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Обсяг
$6,832
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 45% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 45¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 45%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Jun 26, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?» — 45% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 45% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.