Recent Supreme Court rulings rejecting amnesty for Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges and upholding his arrest warrant have anchored trader consensus around a 62.5% “No” probability for any return to Spain before year-end. Despite the EU court’s July endorsement of the broader amnesty law, Spanish judges have preserved the national detention order, leaving Puigdemont in exile in France with no safe path to Spanish soil. Pending Constitutional Court review of his appeal offers the main near-term catalyst, yet historical patterns and the tight timeline to December 31 limit upside for a breakthrough. Traders view the combination of intact legal barriers and absent political momentum as the dominant factor sustaining the lead for “No.”
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено38% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
38% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rulings rejecting amnesty for Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges and upholding his arrest warrant have anchored trader consensus around a 62.5% “No” probability for any return to Spain before year-end. Despite the EU court’s July endorsement of the broader amnesty law, Spanish judges have preserved the national detention order, leaving Puigdemont in exile in France with no safe path to Spanish soil. Pending Constitutional Court review of his appeal offers the main near-term catalyst, yet historical patterns and the tight timeline to December 31 limit upside for a breakthrough. Traders view the combination of intact legal barriers and absent political momentum as the dominant factor sustaining the lead for “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,419Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rulings rejecting amnesty for Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges and upholding his arrest warrant have anchored trader consensus around a 62.5% “No” probability for any return to Spain before year-end. Despite the EU court’s July endorsement of the broader amnesty law, Spanish judges have preserved the national detention order, leaving Puigdemont in exile in France with no safe path to Spanish soil. Pending Constitutional Court review of his appeal offers the main near-term catalyst, yet historical patterns and the tight timeline to December 31 limit upside for a breakthrough. Traders view the combination of intact legal barriers and absent political momentum as the dominant factor sustaining the lead for “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Обсяг
$6,419Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent Supreme Court rulings rejecting amnesty for Puigdemont’s embezzlement charges and upholding his arrest warrant have anchored trader consensus around a 62.5% “No” probability for any return to Spain before year-end. Despite the EU court’s July endorsement of the broader amnesty law, Spanish judges have preserved the national detention order, leaving Puigdemont in exile in France with no safe path to Spanish soil. Pending Constitutional Court review of his appeal offers the main near-term catalyst, yet historical patterns and the tight timeline to December 31 limit upside for a breakthrough. Traders view the combination of intact legal barriers and absent political momentum as the dominant factor sustaining the lead for “No.”
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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