Recent Basque polls, including the late-October Sociómetro, show EH Bildu narrowly ahead in Bizkaia vote share and projected seats for the November 29 general election, fueled by transfers from collapsing confederal-left options such as Frente Amplio and Podemos. PNV and PSOE remain competitive in the province’s eight-seat allocation, with margins under one point separating the top contenders in several simulations. This volatility keeps implied probabilities clustered near 50 percent for leading parties, as small shifts in turnout or undecided voters could alter the seat order. The contest reflects EH Bildu’s broader regional momentum against PNV’s historical Biscay base and PSOE’s steady positioning.