Recent polling averages place PSOE vote share near 27%, projecting 104–113 seats in Spain’s November 29 general election under the D’Hondt system, a decline from 121 in 2023. This positioning stems from PP leads of 2–5 points in most surveys, Vox gains near 19%, and a fragmented left that limits PSOE’s ability to consolidate regional strongholds. The snap election followed parliamentary defeats on housing measures, with the recent Urda train incident and related ministerial resignation adding modest volatility. Trader probabilities cluster tightly around 108–119 seats because seat outcomes remain sensitive to small shifts in turnout, provincial margins, and any late left-wing consolidation, while the right-wing bloc’s projected majority reduces upside scenarios for PSOE.