Florida's 23rd congressional district enters the 2026 cycle as a Solid Democratic seat following recent redistricting that produced a D+9 partisan voter index. Incumbent-aligned Democrat Lois Frankel faces primary challengers Victoria Doyle and Mark Piper on August 18, while Republicans Deborah Adeimy and Paola Branda compete in their primary; the general election remains months away on November 3. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows elevated probabilities clustered around Democratic margins of 15–35 points, with Republican victory odds notably lower, consistent with historical performance in this South Florida district. Limited late-cycle polling and the absence of major campaign events or national headwinds in recent weeks have kept specific margin resolution probabilities balanced across buckets. Potential developments that could widen separation include primary turnout signals, candidate fundraising reports, or broader midterm dynamics affecting Florida's congressional map.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFL-23 House Election Margin of Victory
FL-23 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 20-25% 38%
Democrat 15-20% 38%
Democrat 10-15% 38%
Democrat 5-10% 38%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 35%+
37%
Democrat 30-35%
37%
Democrat 25-30%
37%
Democrat 20-25%
38%
Democrat 15-20%
38%
Democrat 10-15%
38%
Democrat 5-10%
38%
Democrat 0-5%
36%
Republican Wins
36%
Democrat 20-25% 38%
Democrat 15-20% 38%
Democrat 10-15% 38%
Democrat 5-10% 38%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 35%+
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Обс.
37%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Обс.
38%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Обс.
38%
Democrat 10-15%
$0 Обс.
38%
Democrat 5-10%
$0 Обс.
38%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Обс.
36%
Republican Wins
$0 Обс.
36%
The 2026 FL-23 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-23 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 23rd congressional district enters the 2026 cycle as a Solid Democratic seat following recent redistricting that produced a D+9 partisan voter index. Incumbent-aligned Democrat Lois Frankel faces primary challengers Victoria Doyle and Mark Piper on August 18, while Republicans Deborah Adeimy and Paola Branda compete in their primary; the general election remains months away on November 3. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows elevated probabilities clustered around Democratic margins of 15–35 points, with Republican victory odds notably lower, consistent with historical performance in this South Florida district. Limited late-cycle polling and the absence of major campaign events or national headwinds in recent weeks have kept specific margin resolution probabilities balanced across buckets. Potential developments that could widen separation include primary turnout signals, candidate fundraising reports, or broader midterm dynamics affecting Florida's congressional map.
The 2026 FL-23 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-23 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-23 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 FL-23 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-23 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 23rd congressional district enters the 2026 cycle as a Solid Democratic seat following recent redistricting that produced a D+9 partisan voter index. Incumbent-aligned Democrat Lois Frankel faces primary challengers Victoria Doyle and Mark Piper on August 18, while Republicans Deborah Adeimy and Paola Branda compete in their primary; the general election remains months away on November 3. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows elevated probabilities clustered around Democratic margins of 15–35 points, with Republican victory odds notably lower, consistent with historical performance in this South Florida district. Limited late-cycle polling and the absence of major campaign events or national headwinds in recent weeks have kept specific margin resolution probabilities balanced across buckets. Potential developments that could widen separation include primary turnout signals, candidate fundraising reports, or broader midterm dynamics affecting Florida's congressional map.
The 2026 FL-23 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-23 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-23 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Florida's 23rd congressional district enters the 2026 cycle as a Solid Democratic seat following recent redistricting that produced a D+9 partisan voter index. Incumbent-aligned Democrat Lois Frankel faces primary challengers Victoria Doyle and Mark Piper on August 18, while Republicans Deborah Adeimy and Paola Branda compete in their primary; the general election remains months away on November 3. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing shows elevated probabilities clustered around Democratic margins of 15–35 points, with Republican victory odds notably lower, consistent with historical performance in this South Florida district. Limited late-cycle polling and the absence of major campaign events or national headwinds in recent weeks have kept specific margin resolution probabilities balanced across buckets. Potential developments that could widen separation include primary turnout signals, candidate fundraising reports, or broader midterm dynamics affecting Florida's congressional map.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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