Trader sentiment reflects skepticism that frontier labs will announce a formal joint pacing agreement limiting AI capability gains this year, despite endorsements of the concept. Dario Amodei’s September 2026 “We Must Pace the Frontier” essay prompted quick support from OpenAI, xAI, and Google DeepMind leaders for embedded third-party evaluators and safety coordination, followed by a voluntary White House accord on internal controls, external audits, and board oversight signed by multiple labs. However, antitrust lawsuits, the absence of a government waiver for coordinated limits, ongoing competitive pressure from Chinese developers, and the accord’s non-binding nature without explicit rate caps have kept momentum toward a true pacing pact limited. Key near-term catalysts include further standards-body talks and any concrete pauses on frontier training runs.