Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?
33°C 37%
34°C 34%
32°C 17%
35°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 12, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
17%
33°C
37%
34°C
34%
35°C
13%
36°C
4%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 37%
34°C 34%
32°C 17%
35°C 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 12, 2026
27°C or below
$823 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$1,012 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$457 Обс.
1%
30°C
$437 Обс.
1%
31°C
$482 Обс.
2%
32°C
$603 Обс.
17%
33°C
$609 Обс.
37%
34°C
$425 Обс.
34%
35°C
$222 Обс.
13%
36°C
$209 Обс.
4%
37°C or higher
$368 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,646Дата завершення
Jul 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$5,646Дата завершення
Jul 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 10, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for July–September 2026 points to normal-to-above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends, anchoring trader focus on 32–34 °C outcomes that together hold over 85 % implied probability. Peak summer solar insolation, high humidity, and the urban heat island effect typically drive afternoon maxima near 31–32 °C, yet variable monsoon flow, cloud cover, and possible scattered showers can suppress or enhance heating by 1–2 °C. With forecasts still several days out, model spread on boundary-layer moisture and steering winds keeps the 33 °C and 34 °C bins nearly tied, while lower or higher extremes remain limited by climatological precedent and short-term observational constraints.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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