Current National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a July 8 high near the 1991-2020 normal of 94°F for Houston, driven by a building heat dome and southerly flow under mostly sunny skies with only modest afternoon convection expected. Trader emphasis on the 94-95°F bin reflects this baseline, while the broad distribution across 92-97°F captures uncertainty from variable cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, and steering patterns that can either suppress or allow brief spikes above normal. Recent model runs show limited spread, consistent with historical July variability where daily maxima rarely stray far from the 93°F seasonal average absent major frontal passages.