Recent short-range forecasts from European and U.S. models place Madrid’s September 1 maximum near 33–34 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating on the meseta. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only a few runs reaching 35 °C if boundary-layer moisture stays lower than expected, while cooler solutions dip to 32 °C if a weak Atlantic trough arrives slightly earlier. This narrow scientific window explains the near-even market split between 34 °C and 35 °C, with the slim probability mass on 36 °C reflecting the tail risk of an unusually strong surface high. Historical early-September maxima average 30–31 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest but measurable warm anomaly driven by the persistent subtropical ridge.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 1?
35°C 46%
34°C 44%
33°C 8%
32°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
6%
33°C
8%
34°C
44%
35°C
46%
36°C
6%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
34°C 44%
33°C 8%
32°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
30°C or below
$29 Обс.
1%
31°C
$0 Обс.
2%
32°C
$5 Обс.
6%
33°C
$0 Обс.
8%
34°C
$39 Обс.
44%
35°C
$31 Обс.
46%
36°C
$7 Обс.
6%
37°C
$0 Обс.
2%
38°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
39°C
$0 Обс.
<1%
40°C or higher
$0 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from European and U.S. models place Madrid’s September 1 maximum near 33–34 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating on the meseta. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only a few runs reaching 35 °C if boundary-layer moisture stays lower than expected, while cooler solutions dip to 32 °C if a weak Atlantic trough arrives slightly earlier. This narrow scientific window explains the near-even market split between 34 °C and 35 °C, with the slim probability mass on 36 °C reflecting the tail risk of an unusually strong surface high. Historical early-September maxima average 30–31 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest but measurable warm anomaly driven by the persistent subtropical ridge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$110Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from European and U.S. models place Madrid’s September 1 maximum near 33–34 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating on the meseta. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only a few runs reaching 35 °C if boundary-layer moisture stays lower than expected, while cooler solutions dip to 32 °C if a weak Atlantic trough arrives slightly earlier. This narrow scientific window explains the near-even market split between 34 °C and 35 °C, with the slim probability mass on 36 °C reflecting the tail risk of an unusually strong surface high. Historical early-September maxima average 30–31 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest but measurable warm anomaly driven by the persistent subtropical ridge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$110Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from European and U.S. models place Madrid’s September 1 maximum near 33–34 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow that limits mixing and allows strong daytime heating on the meseta. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with only a few runs reaching 35 °C if boundary-layer moisture stays lower than expected, while cooler solutions dip to 32 °C if a weak Atlantic trough arrives slightly earlier. This narrow scientific window explains the near-even market split between 34 °C and 35 °C, with the slim probability mass on 36 °C reflecting the tail risk of an unusually strong surface high. Historical early-September maxima average 30–31 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest but measurable warm anomaly driven by the persistent subtropical ridge.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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