Recent ensemble forecasts from global models place the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 22 in a narrow band around 25–26 °C, producing the closely matched market-implied odds. Coastal moderation from the Mediterranean, combined with light onshore flow and possible scattered afternoon cloud cover, limits peak diurnal heating and keeps outcomes clustered near seasonal averages. Minor differences in model timing of any weak trough or wind shift explain the slim preference for 26 °C over 25 °C, while probabilities drop sharply outside 24–27 °C. Updated runs and official observations from the Israel Meteorological Service tomorrow evening will determine the final recorded maximum.