Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3%, combined with geopolitical energy shocks earlier in 2026, has anchored trader expectations for a cautious or even hawkish policy path, supporting 10-year Treasury yields near 4.69-4.70%. Large fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance add term premium pressure, while firm labor market data reduces near-term rate-cut odds relative to earlier 2026 pricing. Market-implied paths now reflect limited easing potential through year-end, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI and PCE releases, and growth indicators likely to drive yield volatility as participants reassess the balance between inflation risks and any softening in economic momentum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$225,341 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
2%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
4%
1.0%
2%
$225,341 Обс.
3.9%
$44,197 Обс.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 Обс.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Обс.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 Обс.
5%
3.5%
$33,052 Обс.
2%
3.0%
$917 Обс.
3%
2.0%
$564 Обс.
4%
1.0%
$40,570 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3%, combined with geopolitical energy shocks earlier in 2026, has anchored trader expectations for a cautious or even hawkish policy path, supporting 10-year Treasury yields near 4.69-4.70%. Large fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance add term premium pressure, while firm labor market data reduces near-term rate-cut odds relative to earlier 2026 pricing. Market-implied paths now reflect limited easing potential through year-end, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI and PCE releases, and growth indicators likely to drive yield volatility as participants reassess the balance between inflation risks and any softening in economic momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$225,341Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3%, combined with geopolitical energy shocks earlier in 2026, has anchored trader expectations for a cautious or even hawkish policy path, supporting 10-year Treasury yields near 4.69-4.70%. Large fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance add term premium pressure, while firm labor market data reduces near-term rate-cut odds relative to earlier 2026 pricing. Market-implied paths now reflect limited easing potential through year-end, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI and PCE releases, and growth indicators likely to drive yield volatility as participants reassess the balance between inflation risks and any softening in economic momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Обсяг
$225,341Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE recently near 3.3%, combined with geopolitical energy shocks earlier in 2026, has anchored trader expectations for a cautious or even hawkish policy path, supporting 10-year Treasury yields near 4.69-4.70%. Large fiscal deficits and elevated Treasury issuance add term premium pressure, while firm labor market data reduces near-term rate-cut odds relative to earlier 2026 pricing. Market-implied paths now reflect limited easing potential through year-end, with upcoming FOMC meetings, CPI and PCE releases, and growth indicators likely to drive yield volatility as participants reassess the balance between inflation risks and any softening in economic momentum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання