US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 indicate Iran's timeline to develop a nuclear weapon remains 9-12 months despite US-Israeli airstrikes damaging key enrichment sites like Natanz and Fordow earlier this year, with its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unverified by IAEA inspectors due to access denials. This breakout timeline exceeds the roughly seven months remaining before the December 31, 2026 cutoff, anchoring trader consensus at 91% "No" absent a sudden weaponization decision. Ongoing US-Iran diplomacy, where Vice President Vance cited progress on May 13 but demanded ironclad nuclear restrictions, adds de-escalation pressure, while unresolved IAEA safeguards heighten monitoring risks that could prompt further intervention.