Israel's civilian airspace (Tel Aviv FIR) has undergone repeated short-notice closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian missile and drone responses, and related regional escalation involving Hezbollah and Yemen-launched threats. Temporary shutdowns occurred after interceptions such as the June 2026 Yemen missile incident, while EASA advisories in July highlighted elevated risks following renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-August 2026 the FIR remains open, though many international carriers continue avoiding operations and the security environment stays volatile due to ongoing diplomatic and military tensions. Trader assessments of future closures hinge on verifiable triggers like new ballistic threats or official NOTAMs rather than speculation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$27,263,276 Обс.
Jul 14, 2026
August 31
5%
September 30
12%
$27,263,276 Обс.
August 31
$1,231,395 Обс.
5%
September 30
$0 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's civilian airspace (Tel Aviv FIR) has undergone repeated short-notice closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian missile and drone responses, and related regional escalation involving Hezbollah and Yemen-launched threats. Temporary shutdowns occurred after interceptions such as the June 2026 Yemen missile incident, while EASA advisories in July highlighted elevated risks following renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-August 2026 the FIR remains open, though many international carriers continue avoiding operations and the security environment stays volatile due to ongoing diplomatic and military tensions. Trader assessments of future closures hinge on verifiable triggers like new ballistic threats or official NOTAMs rather than speculation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Обсяг
$27,263,276Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's civilian airspace (Tel Aviv FIR) has undergone repeated short-notice closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian missile and drone responses, and related regional escalation involving Hezbollah and Yemen-launched threats. Temporary shutdowns occurred after interceptions such as the June 2026 Yemen missile incident, while EASA advisories in July highlighted elevated risks following renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-August 2026 the FIR remains open, though many international carriers continue avoiding operations and the security environment stays volatile due to ongoing diplomatic and military tensions. Trader assessments of future closures hinge on verifiable triggers like new ballistic threats or official NOTAMs rather than speculation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$27,263,276Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's civilian airspace (Tel Aviv FIR) has undergone repeated short-notice closures and reopenings between February and July 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian missile and drone responses, and related regional escalation involving Hezbollah and Yemen-launched threats. Temporary shutdowns occurred after interceptions such as the June 2026 Yemen missile incident, while EASA advisories in July highlighted elevated risks following renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz. As of mid-August 2026 the FIR remains open, though many international carriers continue avoiding operations and the security environment stays volatile due to ongoing diplomatic and military tensions. Trader assessments of future closures hinge on verifiable triggers like new ballistic threats or official NOTAMs rather than speculation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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