Ongoing regional tensions with Iran continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures, following multiple temporary shutdowns during the February–July 2026 conflict involving U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without renewal, amid renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian threats to target regional energy infrastructure. EASA maintains elevated risk advisories, while many international carriers continue to limit or avoid operations to Ben Gurion Airport. Any escalation involving proxy actions or direct strikes could prompt short-notice closures, though regulators have kept civilian flights operating with continuous monitoring by Israeli authorities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$27,264,078 Обс.
Jul 14, 2026
August 31
5%
September 30
11%
$27,264,078 Обс.
August 31
$1,232,197 Обс.
5%
September 30
$0 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures, following multiple temporary shutdowns during the February–July 2026 conflict involving U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without renewal, amid renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian threats to target regional energy infrastructure. EASA maintains elevated risk advisories, while many international carriers continue to limit or avoid operations to Ben Gurion Airport. Any escalation involving proxy actions or direct strikes could prompt short-notice closures, though regulators have kept civilian flights operating with continuous monitoring by Israeli authorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Обсяг
$27,264,078Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures, following multiple temporary shutdowns during the February–July 2026 conflict involving U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without renewal, amid renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian threats to target regional energy infrastructure. EASA maintains elevated risk advisories, while many international carriers continue to limit or avoid operations to Ben Gurion Airport. Any escalation involving proxy actions or direct strikes could prompt short-notice closures, though regulators have kept civilian flights operating with continuous monitoring by Israeli authorities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$27,264,078Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran continue to shape assessments of potential Israeli airspace closures, following multiple temporary shutdowns during the February–July 2026 conflict involving U.S.-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile and drone responses. As of mid-August 2026 the Tel Aviv FIR remains open after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired without renewal, amid renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian threats to target regional energy infrastructure. EASA maintains elevated risk advisories, while many international carriers continue to limit or avoid operations to Ben Gurion Airport. Any escalation involving proxy actions or direct strikes could prompt short-notice closures, though regulators have kept civilian flights operating with continuous monitoring by Israeli authorities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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