Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently project Likud winning 21–25 seats, down from its current 32, reflecting sustained erosion in support for the governing bloc. Primary drivers include public dissatisfaction with the handling of the post-October 7 security situation, internal Likud primaries tensions, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which leads or ties Likud in multiple surveys while drawing security-focused voters. Coalition partners face pressure over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and judicial reform fallout, limiting bloc totals near or below 50 seats in recent data. These trends underpin trader pricing of an 85.5% probability that Likud loses seats, as current polling averages show limited upside scenarios for recovery before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено86% шанс
$11,046 Обс.
$11,046 Обс.
Oct 27, 2026
86% шанс
$11,046 Обс.
$11,046 Обс.
Oct 27, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently project Likud winning 21–25 seats, down from its current 32, reflecting sustained erosion in support for the governing bloc. Primary drivers include public dissatisfaction with the handling of the post-October 7 security situation, internal Likud primaries tensions, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which leads or ties Likud in multiple surveys while drawing security-focused voters. Coalition partners face pressure over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and judicial reform fallout, limiting bloc totals near or below 50 seats in recent data. These trends underpin trader pricing of an 85.5% probability that Likud loses seats, as current polling averages show limited upside scenarios for recovery before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,046Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently project Likud winning 21–25 seats, down from its current 32, reflecting sustained erosion in support for the governing bloc. Primary drivers include public dissatisfaction with the handling of the post-October 7 security situation, internal Likud primaries tensions, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which leads or ties Likud in multiple surveys while drawing security-focused voters. Coalition partners face pressure over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and judicial reform fallout, limiting bloc totals near or below 50 seats in recent data. These trends underpin trader pricing of an 85.5% probability that Likud loses seats, as current polling averages show limited upside scenarios for recovery before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Обсяг
$11,046Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election consistently project Likud winning 21–25 seats, down from its current 32, reflecting sustained erosion in support for the governing bloc. Primary drivers include public dissatisfaction with the handling of the post-October 7 security situation, internal Likud primaries tensions, and competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which leads or ties Likud in multiple surveys while drawing security-focused voters. Coalition partners face pressure over ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and judicial reform fallout, limiting bloc totals near or below 50 seats in recent data. These trends underpin trader pricing of an 85.5% probability that Likud loses seats, as current polling averages show limited upside scenarios for recovery before election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання