**Recent Israeli election polls consistently project Likud at roughly 19–28 seats in the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, well below its 32 seats from the 2022 election.** This places the party’s bloc (including allies such as Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism) at an average of 51–52 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads or ties most surveys at around 22 seats, with Naftali Bennett’s Together and other opposition lists contributing to a competitive but fragmented field. The sustained gap between current holdings and projected results, reinforced across multiple pollsters in late September and early October, underpins trader consensus that Likud will lose seats. Minor variations in individual surveys and bloc arithmetic do not alter the overall direction reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for a decline.