Recent polls project Likud at 19–26 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, well below its 32 seats from the prior term. Persistent effects from the October 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have eroded support for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s leadership and the party’s security credentials. New centrist and center-right lists, including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, regularly poll at or above Likud levels, while additional entrants such as Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael further fragment the right-wing vote and pull seats from Likud or its traditional allies. The governing coalition bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold across surveys, reflecting sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties. These patterns have remained stable through late August polling, supporting the strong trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено92% шанс
$15,275 Обс.
$15,275 Обс.
Oct 26, 2026
92% шанс
$15,275 Обс.
$15,275 Обс.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls project Likud at 19–26 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, well below its 32 seats from the prior term. Persistent effects from the October 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have eroded support for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s leadership and the party’s security credentials. New centrist and center-right lists, including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, regularly poll at or above Likud levels, while additional entrants such as Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael further fragment the right-wing vote and pull seats from Likud or its traditional allies. The governing coalition bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold across surveys, reflecting sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties. These patterns have remained stable through late August polling, supporting the strong trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$15,275Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls project Likud at 19–26 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, well below its 32 seats from the prior term. Persistent effects from the October 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have eroded support for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s leadership and the party’s security credentials. New centrist and center-right lists, including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, regularly poll at or above Likud levels, while additional entrants such as Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael further fragment the right-wing vote and pull seats from Likud or its traditional allies. The governing coalition bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold across surveys, reflecting sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties. These patterns have remained stable through late August polling, supporting the strong trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Обсяг
$15,275Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent polls project Likud at 19–26 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, well below its 32 seats from the prior term. Persistent effects from the October 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have eroded support for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s leadership and the party’s security credentials. New centrist and center-right lists, including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, regularly poll at or above Likud levels, while additional entrants such as Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael further fragment the right-wing vote and pull seats from Likud or its traditional allies. The governing coalition bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold across surveys, reflecting sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties. These patterns have remained stable through late August polling, supporting the strong trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% implied probability for Likud losing seats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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