Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election project Likud winning 20–23 seats, well below its current 32, as new parties including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael draw support from the right-wing bloc. The Netanyahu-led coalition consistently polls around 48–51 seats even with these additions, short of the 61-seat majority threshold, amid fragmentation that has pushed allies such as Religious Zionism below the electoral threshold in several surveys. These trends, visible across multiple August 2026 polls, reflect sustained shifts in voter preferences that have reduced Likud’s projected representation. Trader consensus assigns the “Yes” outcome a 91.5% implied probability, consistent with the prevailing polling averages.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено92% шанс
$15,275 Обс.
$15,275 Обс.
Oct 26, 2026
92% шанс
$15,275 Обс.
$15,275 Обс.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election project Likud winning 20–23 seats, well below its current 32, as new parties including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael draw support from the right-wing bloc. The Netanyahu-led coalition consistently polls around 48–51 seats even with these additions, short of the 61-seat majority threshold, amid fragmentation that has pushed allies such as Religious Zionism below the electoral threshold in several surveys. These trends, visible across multiple August 2026 polls, reflect sustained shifts in voter preferences that have reduced Likud’s projected representation. Trader consensus assigns the “Yes” outcome a 91.5% implied probability, consistent with the prevailing polling averages.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$15,275Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election project Likud winning 20–23 seats, well below its current 32, as new parties including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael draw support from the right-wing bloc. The Netanyahu-led coalition consistently polls around 48–51 seats even with these additions, short of the 61-seat majority threshold, amid fragmentation that has pushed allies such as Religious Zionism below the electoral threshold in several surveys. These trends, visible across multiple August 2026 polls, reflect sustained shifts in voter preferences that have reduced Likud’s projected representation. Trader consensus assigns the “Yes” outcome a 91.5% implied probability, consistent with the prevailing polling averages.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Обсяг
$15,275Дата завершення
Oct 27, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election project Likud winning 20–23 seats, well below its current 32, as new parties including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael draw support from the right-wing bloc. The Netanyahu-led coalition consistently polls around 48–51 seats even with these additions, short of the 61-seat majority threshold, amid fragmentation that has pushed allies such as Religious Zionism below the electoral threshold in several surveys. These trends, visible across multiple August 2026 polls, reflect sustained shifts in voter preferences that have reduced Likud’s projected representation. Trader consensus assigns the “Yes” outcome a 91.5% implied probability, consistent with the prevailing polling averages.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання