US-Cuba relations remain defined by the long-standing trade embargo, which Congress has codified and which the Trump administration has significantly tightened since returning to office in 2025. In January 2026, the president issued an executive order imposing a fuel blockade through tariffs on third-country oil shipments to Cuba, triggering widespread shortages, blackouts, and economic contraction that have persisted through mid-year. These measures form part of a broader “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at isolating the Cuban government and limiting commercial ties with U.S. firms. In June 2026, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel sidestepped direct questions about McDonald’s or Burger King franchises, emphasizing economic equality rather than signaling any policy shift that would accommodate U.S. fast-food entry. Only one McDonald’s operates in Cuba—inside the Guantánamo Bay naval base under the 1903 lease—and remains inaccessible to Cuban citizens. Traders therefore assign just a 9% chance of any public announcement by year-end, viewing the combination of statutory barriers, active sanctions enforcement, and unchanged bilateral hostility as decisive obstacles.