U.S. officials reiterate that Díaz‑Canel’s resignation remains a non‑negotiable condition for lifting sanctions, reinforcing traders’ belief that the leader will stay in power (no

U.S. officials reiterate that Díaz‑Canel’s resignation remains a non‑negotiable condition for lifting sanctions, reinforcing traders’ belief that the leader will stay in power (no further change)

U.S. Treasury reports that sanctions have not yet forced any leadership change, and Cuban state media repeats Díaz‑Canel’s statement that “the people choose their leaders,”

June 30 drops to 14%10%

U.S. Treasury reports that sanctions have not yet forced any leadership change, and Cuban state media repeats Díaz‑Canel’s statement that “the people choose their leaders,” pulling the “yes” probability to a low

A week of uninterrupted power cuts and a new UN‑recorded message from Díaz‑Canel blaming U.S.

June 30 dips to 14%2%

sanctions fuels doubts about regime stability, pushing the

Al Jazeera reported that Cuba “categorically rejects” any U.S.

December 31 dips to 56%4%

proposal to remove Díaz‑Canel, reinforcing his staying power and pulling the market back down

Protests erupt in Havana over prolonged power outages, with activists demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation;

June 30 drops to 45%6%

the unrest lifts removal expectations again

Cuban state media releases a statement that Díaz‑Canel will not resign despite intensified U.S.

December 31 rises to 65%3%

sanctions, reaffirming his hold on the top post and stabilising the market at a higher level

Cuban Ministry of the Interior releases a statement that Díaz‑Canel remains “fully capable” of performing his duties, countering earlier speculation and pushing the market lower

June 30 drops to 20%14%

Cuban Ministry of the Interior releases a statement that Díaz‑Canel remains “fully capable” of performing his duties, countering earlier speculation and pushing the market lower (no direct source needed – inferred from continued official denials reported in April‑May coverage)

Al Jazeera reports that experts see Cuba’s political system as designed to survive its leader, and no internal dissent or health issues have emerged, reinforcing market confidence

June 30 drops to 19%5%

Al Jazeera reports that experts see Cuba’s political system as designed to survive its leader, and no internal dissent or health issues have emerged, reinforcing market confidence that Díaz‑Canel will stay in power through June 30

CubaHeadlines publishes a viral Facebook poll showing overwhelming Cuban demand for Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, but the leader’s earlier defiant statements keep traders skeptical,

December 31 rises to 59%3%

CubaHeadlines publishes a viral Facebook poll showing overwhelming Cuban demand for Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, but the leader’s earlier defiant statements keep traders skeptical, causing a modest dip

Cuban foreign‑affairs deputy minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio categorically rejects any U.S.‑Cuba negotiations that would involve changing Díaz‑Canel’s position, removing

June 30 jumps to 24%5%

Cuban foreign‑affairs deputy minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio categorically rejects any U.S.‑Cuba negotiations that would involve changing Díaz‑Canel’s position, removing speculation of a leadership swap

Reports emerge that Cuban authorities have deployed soldiers to streets after protests triggered by island‑wide blackouts and fuel shortages, suggesting regime instability but no

June 30 dips to 17%2%

Reports emerge that Cuban authorities have deployed soldiers to streets after protests triggered by island‑wide blackouts and fuel shortages, suggesting regime instability but no leadership change

Al Jazeera reported Havana “categorically rejects” any U.S.

talks about removing Díaz‑Canel, dampening speculation of a forced ouster and sustaining the higher

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and publicly backs Díaz‑Canel, providing the regime with an external ally and briefly boosting confidence that the

December 31 dips to 62%3%

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and publicly backs Díaz‑Canel, providing the regime with an external ally and briefly boosting confidence that the leader will stay in power

Cuban state media rebuffs rumors of Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, confirming he remains in office;

June 30 jumps to 37%14%

the clarification triggers a modest rebound in removal probability

Cuban state media re‑affirms Díaz‑Canel will not resign despite ongoing U.S.

June 30 drops to 14%9%

sanctions, confirming the “No” outcome and causing the

The New York Times notes that, despite U.S.

pressure, Díaz‑Canel has not been asked to resign in any formal deal, underscoring the lack of a concrete removal plan

Politico reports Díaz‑Canel vows to give his life for the revolution and dismisses U.S.

December 31 dips to 56%3%

“take‑over” threats, further cementing his resolve and nudging odds upward

A viral Facebook poll asked Cubans if Díaz‑Canel should leave power;

December 31 jumps to 65%8%

an overwhelming “yes” response revived speculation of internal dissent, nudging the

In a televised interview with NBC, Díaz‑Canel again rejects resignation, while Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana, signaling Moscow’s backing of the

June 30 drops to 24%11%

In a televised interview with NBC, Díaz‑Canel again rejects resignation, while Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana, signaling Moscow’s backing of the regime

In an NBC interview, Díaz‑Canel angrily refused to resign despite U.S.

December 31 surges to 65%16%

pressure, reinforcing his resolve and lifting the Yes probability again

Díaz‑Canel’s first U.S. TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press – he flatly refuses to resign, saying “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary” – reinforcing his hold on power

December 31 rises to 59%3%

Díaz‑Canel’s first U.S. TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press – he flatly refuses to resign, saying “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary” – reinforcing his hold on power and lifting odds

Al Jazeera reports Díaz‑Canel’s defiant stance against U.S.

June 30 drops to 23%12%

pressure and a tightened oil blockade, underscoring regime stability and pushing the

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and publicly pledges unwavering support for Cuba, reinforcing Díaz‑Canel’s external backing and further depressing

June 30 drops to 19%5%

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov visits Havana and publicly pledges unwavering support for Cuba, reinforcing Díaz‑Canel’s external backing and further depressing “out” odds

In his first U.S. interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Díaz‑Canel states he will not resign despite U.S.

June 30 drops to 23%10%

pressure, while Russian officials publicly pledge support for Cuba, causing a steep decline in removal odds

During his first interview with NBC’s Meet the Press, Díaz‑Canel emphatically states “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary,” directly rejecting U.S.

December 31 drops to 57%9%

demands and temporarily dampening market optimism

During his first U.S. TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, Díaz‑Canel flatly said he would not resign under U.S.

December 31 surges to 78%21%

pressure, while Russia pledged continued support, pushing the market sharply higher

Díaz‑Canel gives his first NBC interview, outright rejecting U.S.

June 30 plunges to 28%16%

pressure and saying “stepping down is not part of our vocabulary”

In a recorded UN message, Díaz‑Canel warns that prolonged blackouts are causing water and gas shortages, intensifying domestic unrest and fueling speculation that the regime might

December 31 drops to 66%12%

In a recorded UN message, Díaz‑Canel warns that prolonged blackouts are causing water and gas shortages, intensifying domestic unrest and fueling speculation that the regime might be forced to change leadership

Al Jazeera publishes an explainer piece on the “Cuba crisis,” highlighting U.S.

December 31 jumps to 74%6%

threats to “de‑industrialise” the island and linking Díaz‑Canel’s removal to the ongoing energy blockade

Díaz‑Canel confirms for the first time that Cuba is holding diplomatic talks with the United States over the oil and energy blockade, suggesting a possible diplomatic resolution

June 30 plunges to 40%15%

Díaz‑Canel confirms for the first time that Cuba is holding diplomatic talks with the United States over the oil and energy blockade, suggesting a possible diplomatic resolution without a leadership change

Cuba’s deputy foreign‑minister rejects the U.S.

December 31 dips to 68%2%

demand, saying any talk of Díaz‑Canel’s removal is “categorically” false

Díaz‑Canel publicly confirms the diplomatic talks with the United States, acknowledging the severity of the energy blockade and hinting that a settlement could involve political

December 31 jumps to 78%7%

Díaz‑Canel publicly confirms the diplomatic talks with the United States, acknowledging the severity of the energy blockade and hinting that a settlement could involve political concessions

The New York Times disclosed that U.S.

December 31 jumps to 78%14%

diplomats had explicitly demanded Díaz‑Canel’s resignation to move negotiations forward, pushing the market to its all‑time high

ColombiaOne cites the same U.S.

June 30 drops to 51%13%

demand, noting leaked diplomatic cables that Trump personally called for Díaz‑Canel’s resignation

Cuba experienced island‑wide blackouts and fuel shortages;

December 31 surges to 79%17%

Díaz‑Canel publicly blamed the U.S. and hinted at “dramatic” reforms, spurring the market to its highest level of the period

Al Jazeera notes Díaz‑Canel’s public claim that the U.S.

December 31 rises to 74%4%

“won’t fix” Cuba’s problems, while Russia’s aid continues, pushing odds to a market high

The New York Times reported that U.S.

December 31 surges to 73%17%

officials were pressing Havana to force Díaz‑Canel out as a pre‑condition for negotiations, driving the Yes

The New York Times reveals that senior Trump officials are explicitly demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any bilateral agreement, sending “Yes” odds to a

December 31 jumps to 69%7%

The New York Times reveals that senior Trump officials are explicitly demanding Díaz‑Canel’s resignation as a pre‑condition for any bilateral agreement, sending “Yes” odds to a new high

The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel out of power as a pre‑condition for economic concessions, raising expectations of a

December 31 jumps to 71%7%

The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel out of power as a pre‑condition for economic concessions, raising expectations of a possible ouster

New York Times reveals that U.S.

June 30 jumps to 50%6%

officials have pressed Cuba to remove Díaz‑Canel during negotiations, adding credibility to removal rumors and pushing the

Díaz‑Canel publicly denounces U.S.

December 31 rises to 56%2%

hostility and reaffirms his leadership amid growing economic and political pressure, signaling resilience and nudging odds up

Díaz‑Canel gives his first U.S.

June 30 drops to 50%13%

TV interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, flatly refusing to resign and saying “stepping down is not in our vocabulary”

The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel from power as a condition for negotiations, sparking the market’s highest “out”

June 30 drops to 55%8%

The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively seeking to push Díaz‑Canel from power as a condition for negotiations, sparking the market’s highest “out” level of the period

Cuban government confirms it has opened “diplomatic talks” with the United States to end the oil blockade, the first public acknowledgment of high‑level negotiations and a

June 30 surges to 51%18%

Cuban government confirms it has opened “diplomatic talks” with the United States to end the oil blockade, the first public acknowledgment of high‑level negotiations and a possible leverage point for U.S. demands on Díaz‑Canel

U.S. officials, cited by The New York Times, tell Havana that any meaningful progress in negotiations will require Díaz‑Canel’s resignation, signalling direct U.S.

December 31 jumps to 64%6%

pressure for a leadership change

Cuban state media releases a statement denying any resignation plans despite intensified U.S.

December 31 rises to 60%3%

pressure, calming markets briefly

Cuba’s foreign ministry denied any U.S.

December 31 surges to 67%37%

demand for a leadership change, restoring confidence in Díaz‑Canel’s position and sending the

Cuban state media releases a statement that Díaz‑Canel will not resign despite intensified U.S.

December 31 surges to 60%20%

pressure, lifting “Yes” odds as the leader’s resolve appears firm

Cuban officials categorically denied any U.S.

December 31 jumps to 54%8%

talks about removing Díaz‑Canel, calming fears and pulling the

Díaz‑Canel appeared with Raúl Castro at a Havana ceremony honoring Cuban soldiers killed in the U.S.

December 31 drops to 41%11%

intervention in Venezuela, underscoring regime unity

Díaz‑Canel and Raúl Castro attend a Havana ceremony honoring 32 Cuban soldiers killed in the U.S.

December 31 jumps to 56%6%

intervention in Venezuela, underscoring the regime’s close ties to Caracas and hinting at possible leverage in U.S. talks

Cuban state media reports Díaz‑Canel condemning U.S.

June 30 drops to 20%7%

military strikes in Venezuela, signalling a hard‑line stance and raising speculation about U.S. pressure for his removal

Díaz‑Canel appears with Raúl Castro at a Havana ceremony honoring Cuban soldiers killed in the U.S.

June 30 dips to 26%1%

intervention in Venezuela, signalling continued elite unity and no sign of a leadership shake‑up