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Політика·Проміжні семестри

Closest Senate Race?

icon for Closest Senate Race?
Політика·Проміжні семестри

Closest Senate Race?

Texas 26%

Iowa 22.4%

Ohio (Special) 15.3%

Maine 15%

Polymarket

$28,230 Обс.

Texas 26%

Iowa 22.4%

Ohio (Special) 15.3%

Maine 15%

Polymarket

$28,230 Обс.

Texas

$1,078 Обс.

26%

Iowa

$2,677 Обс.

22%

Ohio (Special)

$5,040 Обс.

15%

Maine

$1,285 Обс.

15%

Alaska

$5,272 Обс.

12%

Nebraska

$275 Обс.

5%

Michigan

$2,490 Обс.

5%

New Mexico

$160 Обс.

3%

Florida (Special)

$253 Обс.

3%

Virginia

$5,073 Обс.

2%

North Carolina

$621 Обс.

2%

New Hampshire

$485 Обс.

1%

Georgia

$752 Обс.

1%

Colorado

$662 Обс.

1%

Minnesota

$1,489 Обс.

1%

Montana

$616 Обс.

<1%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Polymarket consensus highlights Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special as the leading candidates for the tightest 2026 Senate contest, driven by recent polling averages showing margins under 5 points in each. In Texas, primary shifts produced a matchup between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico that remains within 1-3 points. Iowa features an open seat with Republican Ashley Hinson holding slim leads over Democrat Josh Turek in the latest surveys. The Ohio special pits Republican Jon Husted against Democrat Sherrod Brown, with results fluctuating by a few points across Fox and NYT/Siena polls. These races stay closely matched due to strong challenger recruitment, comparable fundraising, and voter priorities on economic conditions that limit separation. Further primary outcomes, late-cycle endorsements, or national polling swings could widen gaps ahead of November.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$28,230
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Polymarket consensus highlights Texas, Iowa, and the Ohio special as the leading candidates for the tightest 2026 Senate contest, driven by recent polling averages showing margins under 5 points in each. In Texas, primary shifts produced a matchup between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico that remains within 1-3 points. Iowa features an open seat with Republican Ashley Hinson holding slim leads over Democrat Josh Turek in the latest surveys. The Ohio special pits Republican Jon Husted against Democrat Sherrod Brown, with results fluctuating by a few points across Fox and NYT/Siena polls. These races stay closely matched due to strong challenger recruitment, comparable fundraising, and voter priorities on economic conditions that limit separation. Further primary outcomes, late-cycle endorsements, or national polling swings could widen gaps ahead of November.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.

This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$28,230
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Пов'язане

icon for Will Ohio have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Will Ohio have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

18%
icon for Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

72%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?

Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?

27%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Closest Senate Race?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 16 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Texas» з 26%, далі «Iowa» з 22%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Closest Senate Race?» згенерував $28.2K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jun 26, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Closest Senate Race?», перегляньте 16 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Closest Senate Race?» — «Texas» з 26%. Наступний — «Iowa» з 22%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Closest Senate Race?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.