Recent polling shows multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within narrow margins, with Texas, Iowa, and Ohio special election drawing the heaviest trader attention for the smallest projected spread. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remain tied near 47 percent each after primaries produced high-profile nominees. Iowa features Republican Ashley Hinson holding a slim edge over Democrat Josh Turek in an open seat. Ohio pits Republican Jon Husted against returning Democrat Sherrod Brown in another toss-up. These dynamics, alongside competitive matchups in Alaska and Maine, keep probabilities distributed across several states, with late-cycle national shifts, turnout differentials, or candidate-specific developments capable of widening or narrowing the final gap before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоClosest Senate Race?
Closest Senate Race?
Texas 25%
Iowa 21.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 14.8%
$28,210 Обс.
$28,210 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
25%
Iowa
21%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
15%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 25%
Iowa 21.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 14.8%
$28,210 Обс.
$28,210 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,058 Обс.
25%
Iowa
$2,677 Обс.
21%
Maine
$1,285 Обс.
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Обс.
15%
Alaska
$5,272 Обс.
12%
Michigan
$2,490 Обс.
6%
Nebraska
$275 Обс.
5%
New Mexico
$160 Обс.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Обс.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Обс.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Обс.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Обс.
2%
Georgia
$752 Обс.
1%
Colorado
$662 Обс.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Обс.
1%
Montana
$616 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within narrow margins, with Texas, Iowa, and Ohio special election drawing the heaviest trader attention for the smallest projected spread. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remain tied near 47 percent each after primaries produced high-profile nominees. Iowa features Republican Ashley Hinson holding a slim edge over Democrat Josh Turek in an open seat. Ohio pits Republican Jon Husted against returning Democrat Sherrod Brown in another toss-up. These dynamics, alongside competitive matchups in Alaska and Maine, keep probabilities distributed across several states, with late-cycle national shifts, turnout differentials, or candidate-specific developments capable of widening or narrowing the final gap before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Обсяг
$28,210Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within narrow margins, with Texas, Iowa, and Ohio special election drawing the heaviest trader attention for the smallest projected spread. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remain tied near 47 percent each after primaries produced high-profile nominees. Iowa features Republican Ashley Hinson holding a slim edge over Democrat Josh Turek in an open seat. Ohio pits Republican Jon Husted against returning Democrat Sherrod Brown in another toss-up. These dynamics, alongside competitive matchups in Alaska and Maine, keep probabilities distributed across several states, with late-cycle national shifts, turnout differentials, or candidate-specific developments capable of widening or narrowing the final gap before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$28,210Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within narrow margins, with Texas, Iowa, and Ohio special election drawing the heaviest trader attention for the smallest projected spread. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remain tied near 47 percent each after primaries produced high-profile nominees. Iowa features Republican Ashley Hinson holding a slim edge over Democrat Josh Turek in an open seat. Ohio pits Republican Jon Husted against returning Democrat Sherrod Brown in another toss-up. These dynamics, alongside competitive matchups in Alaska and Maine, keep probabilities distributed across several states, with late-cycle national shifts, turnout differentials, or candidate-specific developments capable of widening or narrowing the final gap before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання