Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+22 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 96.8% implied probability of a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. The district delivered 71% for Trump in 2024, aligning with Fulcher's prior landslide wins of 71% in 2024 and 2022. With primaries set for May 19, Fulcher faces nominal challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison, while Democrats Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson vie in a low-resource primary; independent Sarah Zabel adds little threat. Scenarios like a primary upset, Fulcher scandal, or national wave could shift odds, though historical base rates favor the incumbent.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоID-01 House Election Winner
ID-01 House Election Winner
$33,743 Обс.
$33,743 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
97%
Democratic Party
3%
$33,743 Обс.
$33,743 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$21,177 Обс.
97%
Democratic Party
$12,565 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+22 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 96.8% implied probability of a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. The district delivered 71% for Trump in 2024, aligning with Fulcher's prior landslide wins of 71% in 2024 and 2022. With primaries set for May 19, Fulcher faces nominal challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison, while Democrats Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson vie in a low-resource primary; independent Sarah Zabel adds little threat. Scenarios like a primary upset, Fulcher scandal, or national wave could shift odds, though historical base rates favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$33,743Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+22 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 96.8% implied probability of a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. The district delivered 71% for Trump in 2024, aligning with Fulcher's prior landslide wins of 71% in 2024 and 2022. With primaries set for May 19, Fulcher faces nominal challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison, while Democrats Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson vie in a low-resource primary; independent Sarah Zabel adds little threat. Scenarios like a primary upset, Fulcher scandal, or national wave could shift odds, though historical base rates favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$33,743Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+22 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 96.8% implied probability of a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. The district delivered 71% for Trump in 2024, aligning with Fulcher's prior landslide wins of 71% in 2024 and 2022. With primaries set for May 19, Fulcher faces nominal challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison, while Democrats Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson vie in a low-resource primary; independent Sarah Zabel adds little threat. Scenarios like a primary upset, Fulcher scandal, or national wave could shift odds, though historical base rates favor the incumbent.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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