Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent Republican margins in presidential and House contests, including Donald Trump’s double-digit victories in recent cycles. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced alongside Democrat John Duresky. Voter registration patterns, county-level results across Yakima and the Tri-Cities, and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure sustain trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% Republican probability. A major national partisan shift, significant Republican nominee setbacks, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural fundamentals make such reversals uncommon.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWA-04 House Election Winner
WA-04 House Election Winner
$50,629 Обс.
$50,629 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
$50,629 Обс.
$50,629 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$28,019 Обс.
91%
Democratic Party
$22,611 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent Republican margins in presidential and House contests, including Donald Trump’s double-digit victories in recent cycles. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced alongside Democrat John Duresky. Voter registration patterns, county-level results across Yakima and the Tri-Cities, and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure sustain trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% Republican probability. A major national partisan shift, significant Republican nominee setbacks, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural fundamentals make such reversals uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Обсяг
$50,629Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent Republican margins in presidential and House contests, including Donald Trump’s double-digit victories in recent cycles. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced alongside Democrat John Duresky. Voter registration patterns, county-level results across Yakima and the Tri-Cities, and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure sustain trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% Republican probability. A major national partisan shift, significant Republican nominee setbacks, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural fundamentals make such reversals uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$50,629Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent Republican margins in presidential and House contests, including Donald Trump’s double-digit victories in recent cycles. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4, 2026 top-two primary consolidated Republican support behind Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who advanced alongside Democrat John Duresky. Voter registration patterns, county-level results across Yakima and the Tri-Cities, and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure sustain trader consensus reflected in the 90.5% Republican probability. A major national partisan shift, significant Republican nominee setbacks, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though structural fundamentals make such reversals uncommon.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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