Recent polling averages ahead of the November 7 election show National and Labour nearly tied near 29-30 percent, with the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition holding a narrow projected edge in many simulations while the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc trails but remains competitive when including the Opportunities Party. National has ruled out post-election cooperation with Opportunities, positioning it as a potential kingmaker that would tilt toward the left if it clears the five percent threshold. Trader consensus therefore assigns the highest probability to the current centre-right partners renewing their arrangement, followed by various left-leaning combinations that would require multiple smaller parties to reach the 62-seat majority under MMP rules. Recent campaign announcements on housing, supermarkets, and government size have reinforced existing bloc alignments without shifting the overall balance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
National + ACT + NZF 45%
Labour + Green 19.3%
Labour + Green + Maori 19%
Other 7.3%
$55,424 Обс.
$55,424 Обс.
Nov 6, 2026
Labour
<1%
Labour + Green
19%
Labour + Maori
1%
Labour + NZF
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori
19%
Labour + Green + NZF
1%
Labour + Maori + NZF
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
1%
National
<1%
National + ACT
1%
National + NZF
2%
National + Maori
<1%
National + ACT + NZF
45%
National + ACT + Maori
<1%
National + NZF + Maori
<1%
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
<1%
National + Labour
1%
Other
7%
National + ACT + NZF 45%
Labour + Green 19.3%
Labour + Green + Maori 19%
Other 7.3%
$55,424 Обс.
$55,424 Обс.
Nov 6, 2026
Labour
$1,524 Обс.
<1%
Labour + Green
$5,001 Обс.
19%
Labour + Maori
$1,479 Обс.
1%
Labour + NZF
$1,436 Обс.
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori
$5,269 Обс.
19%
Labour + Green + NZF
$1,719 Обс.
1%
Labour + Maori + NZF
$1,438 Обс.
<1%
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF
$1,999 Обс.
1%
National
$1,346 Обс.
<1%
National + ACT
$2,230 Обс.
1%
National + NZF
$1,841 Обс.
2%
National + Maori
$1,421 Обс.
<1%
National + ACT + NZF
$10,149 Обс.
45%
National + ACT + Maori
$1,431 Обс.
<1%
National + NZF + Maori
$1,345 Обс.
<1%
National + ACT + NZF + Maori
$1,527 Обс.
<1%
National + Labour
$1,472 Обс.
1%
Other
$12,796 Обс.
7%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.Recent polling averages ahead of the November 7 election show National and Labour nearly tied near 29-30 percent, with the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition holding a narrow projected edge in many simulations while the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc trails but remains competitive when including the Opportunities Party. National has ruled out post-election cooperation with Opportunities, positioning it as a potential kingmaker that would tilt toward the left if it clears the five percent threshold. Trader consensus therefore assigns the highest probability to the current centre-right partners renewing their arrangement, followed by various left-leaning combinations that would require multiple smaller parties to reach the 62-seat majority under MMP rules. Recent campaign announcements on housing, supermarkets, and government size have reinforced existing bloc alignments without shifting the overall balance.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
Ринок відкрито: May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$55,424Дата завершення
Nov 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.Recent polling averages ahead of the November 7 election show National and Labour nearly tied near 29-30 percent, with the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition holding a narrow projected edge in many simulations while the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc trails but remains competitive when including the Opportunities Party. National has ruled out post-election cooperation with Opportunities, positioning it as a potential kingmaker that would tilt toward the left if it clears the five percent threshold. Trader consensus therefore assigns the highest probability to the current centre-right partners renewing their arrangement, followed by various left-leaning combinations that would require multiple smaller parties to reach the 62-seat majority under MMP rules. Recent campaign announcements on housing, supermarkets, and government size have reinforced existing bloc alignments without shifting the overall balance.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election.
A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.
- If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes.
If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
Обсяг
$55,424Дата завершення
Nov 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 4:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages ahead of the November 7 election show National and Labour nearly tied near 29-30 percent, with the incumbent National-ACT-NZ First coalition holding a narrow projected edge in many simulations while the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc trails but remains competitive when including the Opportunities Party. National has ruled out post-election cooperation with Opportunities, positioning it as a potential kingmaker that would tilt toward the left if it clears the five percent threshold. Trader consensus therefore assigns the highest probability to the current centre-right partners renewing their arrangement, followed by various left-leaning combinations that would require multiple smaller parties to reach the 62-seat majority under MMP rules. Recent campaign announcements on housing, supermarkets, and government size have reinforced existing bloc alignments without shifting the overall balance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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