Preliminary election results from November 7 show the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition holding 67 seats in the 131-seat parliament, just above the 66-seat majority threshold, while Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori trail. Special votes, representing about 14% of the total and historically favoring left-leaning parties, remain uncounted, with official results due November 27. National has ruled out cooperation with the centrist Opportunity Party, which cleared the 5% threshold and gained seats, limiting cross-bloc options. These factors, combined with the arithmetic under MMP and the incumbent bloc’s preliminary edge, underpin trader consensus around continuation of the existing three-party arrangement. Uncertainty over final seat totals and potential negotiations keeps other combinations at low implied probabilities.