Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting consistent double-digit polling leads amid high approval ratings. The latest Genial/Quaest poll from April 23–27 showed him at 38% in a crowded first-round field versus Fernando Haddad's 26%, Kim Kataguiri's 5%, and others lower, with a 49%–32% edge in a hypothetical runoff; 54% of voters approve his performance and deem him deserving of re-election despite a recent dip. Haddad's March resignation as Finance Minister to mount a PT challenge has failed to close the gap, underscoring opposition fragmentation and Tarcísio's incumbency edge, though late scandals or economic shifts could alter trajectories.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 12.0%
Kim Kataguiri 3.8%
Márcio França 1.4%
$21,531 Обс.
$21,531 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
12%
Kim Kataguiri
4%
Márcio França
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 12.0%
Kim Kataguiri 3.8%
Márcio França 1.4%
$21,531 Обс.
$21,531 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$10,878 Обс.
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,541 Обс.
12%
Kim Kataguiri
$1,730 Обс.
4%
Márcio França
$2,343 Обс.
1%
Erika Hilton
$3,038 Обс.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting consistent double-digit polling leads amid high approval ratings. The latest Genial/Quaest poll from April 23–27 showed him at 38% in a crowded first-round field versus Fernando Haddad's 26%, Kim Kataguiri's 5%, and others lower, with a 49%–32% edge in a hypothetical runoff; 54% of voters approve his performance and deem him deserving of re-election despite a recent dip. Haddad's March resignation as Finance Minister to mount a PT challenge has failed to close the gap, underscoring opposition fragmentation and Tarcísio's incumbency edge, though late scandals or economic shifts could alter trajectories.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$21,531Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting consistent double-digit polling leads amid high approval ratings. The latest Genial/Quaest poll from April 23–27 showed him at 38% in a crowded first-round field versus Fernando Haddad's 26%, Kim Kataguiri's 5%, and others lower, with a 49%–32% edge in a hypothetical runoff; 54% of voters approve his performance and deem him deserving of re-election despite a recent dip. Haddad's March resignation as Finance Minister to mount a PT challenge has failed to close the gap, underscoring opposition fragmentation and Tarcísio's incumbency edge, though late scandals or economic shifts could alter trajectories.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$21,531Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas dominates trader consensus at 82.5% implied probability for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting consistent double-digit polling leads amid high approval ratings. The latest Genial/Quaest poll from April 23–27 showed him at 38% in a crowded first-round field versus Fernando Haddad's 26%, Kim Kataguiri's 5%, and others lower, with a 49%–32% edge in a hypothetical runoff; 54% of voters approve his performance and deem him deserving of re-election despite a recent dip. Haddad's March resignation as Finance Minister to mount a PT challenge has failed to close the gap, underscoring opposition fragmentation and Tarcísio's incumbency edge, though late scandals or economic shifts could alter trajectories.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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