Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election on October 4, with recent polls showing him ahead by 13–18 points. Surveys from Ideia/ACSP (early August) and Genial/Quaest (late July) place him at 41–50.6% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–33.6%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from incumbency advantages in Brazil’s most populous state, sustained voter support on the right, and consistent leads in multiple independent surveys that align with the market’s 93.5% implied probability. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, significant economic disruptions in the state, or unexpected late surges by opposition figures, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,494 Обс.
$279,494 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,494 Обс.
$279,494 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$123,143 Обс.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$47,202 Обс.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Обс.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 Обс.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Обс.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election on October 4, with recent polls showing him ahead by 13–18 points. Surveys from Ideia/ACSP (early August) and Genial/Quaest (late July) place him at 41–50.6% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–33.6%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from incumbency advantages in Brazil’s most populous state, sustained voter support on the right, and consistent leads in multiple independent surveys that align with the market’s 93.5% implied probability. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, significant economic disruptions in the state, or unexpected late surges by opposition figures, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Обсяг
$279,494Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election on October 4, with recent polls showing him ahead by 13–18 points. Surveys from Ideia/ACSP (early August) and Genial/Quaest (late July) place him at 41–50.6% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–33.6%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from incumbency advantages in Brazil’s most populous state, sustained voter support on the right, and consistent leads in multiple independent surveys that align with the market’s 93.5% implied probability. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, significant economic disruptions in the state, or unexpected late surges by opposition figures, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$279,494Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking re-election on October 4, with recent polls showing him ahead by 13–18 points. Surveys from Ideia/ACSP (early August) and Genial/Quaest (late July) place him at 41–50.6% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 26–33.6%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from incumbency advantages in Brazil’s most populous state, sustained voter support on the right, and consistent leads in multiple independent surveys that align with the market’s 93.5% implied probability. Potential shifts could arise from major scandals, significant economic disruptions in the state, or unexpected late surges by opposition figures, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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